Waller (Fed) bets on reducing interest rates "gradually" and with "more caution"

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By TP

He governor of the Federal Reserve, Christopher Wallerhas indicated that its base scenario continues to be that of cut interest rates «gradually» and with «more caution» than in September, when the US central bank opted for a 'jumbo' drop, although it has stressed that «there is less certainty about the final destination.» In this sense, he commented that «the estimated long-term average level of the federal funds rate in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) of the Committee is 2.9%, but with a fairly wide dispersion, ranging between 2.4 and 3.8%. While there will be a lot of focus on the magnitude of the cuts in the next meeting or two, I think the broader message from the SEP is that there is a considerable degree of accommodative policy to eliminate, and If the economy continues at its current optimal point, this will happen gradually«. During a conference at Stanford University, California, the Fed governor also reviewed the country's economic situation and recognized that «It is possible that the economy is not slowing down as much as desired». «While we do not want to overreact to this data or revise it, I believe that All the data indicates that monetary policy should proceed with more caution in the pace of cuts of what was needed at the September meeting. I will be watching to see whether the data, which will be published before our next meeting, on inflation, the labor market and economic activity confirm or undermine my inclination to be more cautious when it comes to easing monetary policy. Waller, although job creation has moderated and the unemployment rate has increased over the last year, the labor market remains «pretty healthy». However, he warned that «it will not be easy to interpret» the October employment report that will be published just before the next FOMC meeting. «This report will most likely show a significant, but temporary lossof jobs due to the two hurricanes recent and attack on Boeing. «I expect these factors to reduce job growth by more than 100,000 this month, and there may be a small effect on the unemployment rate, but I'm not sure it will be that visible,» he explained. Although looking ahead, he expects «the increase in payrolls will moderate» with respect to its current pace, but that continue at a solid pace. Regarding inflation, the Fed governor has indicated that there are «good reasons to think that price increases will be modest in the future«.»With the labor market in rough balance, employment near its peak, and inflation generally close to our target in recent months, I want to do what I can as a policymaker to keep the economy on this path«Waller concluded.