Although bitcoin (BTC) remains in a tight range seven months ago, it could benefit in the final months of the year, according to cryptoasset exchange CoinEx. “The macroeconomic outlook for the rest of 2024 appears encouraging, especially given the continued impact of the Fed's policies,” he states in a report sent to BitcoinDynamic. The exchange classifies the recent 50 basis point cut in interest rates in the United States as a key event. “It generated optimism in the markets,” he comments. “The more accommodative global monetary stance, coupled with technological advances, suggests that expectations remain favorable as we head towards 2025,” he adds. Furthermore, in November there will be the presidential elections in the United States, which indicates positive expectations for the regulation of cryptocurrencies.
Candidates from both major political parties have shown support for the bitcoin and cryptocurrency ecosystem. Although, the Republican leader, Donald Trump, has taken a more leading role in the matter, identifying himself as a strong promoter. “As October progresses, participants will be closely watching economic data and the US elections, which could be drivers of the next wave of activity in the 'crypto' ecosystem,” exclaims CoinEx.
Economic resilience may favor bitcoin
Coinex also highlights that, according to the Federal Reserve (Fed), Central Bank of the United States, there will be a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2% by 2025 and 2026. Such projections “indicate confidence in economic resilience in the face of current policy changes,” CoinEx mentions. With this in mind, he maintains that inflationary prospects remain manageable. However, he clarifies that Projected rise in unemployment rates suggests Fed actions could reflect some pressure in the labor market. Therefore, the development of this situation is crucial so that it does not create headwinds. Another relevant risk variable to watch is the USD-JPY currency pair, according to the exchange. He explains that market participants are attentive to this, since it could affect global liquidity flows if Japan's central bank continues with its policy of raising rates. The increase in interest rates in Japan two months ago caused massive outflows in the markets of investors who requested loans in yen (JPY) to invest. Consequently, multiple assets, including bitcoin and stocks, recorded sharp declines. Consequently, its continuity will be key. Meanwhile, the price of the digital currency remains in a period of consolidation below the all-time high it registered seven months ago.