Wall Street anticipates a moderate rebound this Monday, at the beginning of a week marked by technological. And, during the next sessions, companies like Alphabet, Tesla or Intel will announce their quarterly results. All this, without losing sight of the situation in Middle East. Furthermore, as Kathleen Brooks, research director at «They attacked Iran for the ninth consecutive day and There are concerns that the Strait of Hormuz could be completely closed to trafficafter the Persian country said that two oil tankers had exploded and been immobilized. «The provisional ceasefire agreement falls apart day by dayand traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to come to a complete standstill following this latest upsurge in violence. Some shipowners continue to cross the strait, but this carries high risk and high insurance costs, which will no doubt deter others. In another sign of rising tensions, Iran has attacked key infrastructure of US allies in the region, including Kuwait, suggesting that US attacks will continue in the short term«adds this expert. In this regard, Renta 4 Banco focuses on the fact that Iran has formally announced that the June 17 MoU has collapsedwith new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warning of «unforgettable lessons» for the US and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi acknowledging that certain nuclear demands may be «unsolvable.» «The Iranian Revolutionary Guard promised that ‘not a single drop of oil, gas or fertilizer will pass through the Strait of Hormuz without coordination and permission,’ while Global inventories excluding China are at historic lowsleaving the world with little room for error,» they explain. Thus, at Link Securities they emphasize that «our expectations that the parties will sit down to negotiate again are very lowespecially after the latest casualties recorded among members of the US army, a fact that is difficult for both the country and its president to accept.» However, for Bankinter, it still seems like a «controlled» escalation as a way to «put pressure on negotiations for a definitive agreement and although oil continues to rise, below 100 dollars it should not be a risk for inflation.» In this sense, the West Texas barrel falls 0.50%, to 82 dollars, while Brent is trading flat at 88 dollars.
AI TAKES PLACE
At the business level, the results of Alphabet and Tesla (Wednesday) or Intel (Thursday) will be the immediate test to determine if the AI monetization narrative can withstand the pressure. «If Alphabet disappoints, the correction in technology can accelerate. If it shows real acceleration in cloud and AI, it can be the catalyst for a rebound,» they say in Renta 4 Banco. This after the technology sector was the one with the worst performance last week (Nasdaq -4%, Philadelphia Semiconductor -10% in the week and -20% from highs) due to concerns about the high investments in AI and the valuations of these companies.
«OpenAI and Anthropic have achieved extraordinary valuations and both companies are reportedly considering going public in the coming months unless market volatility delays those plans. «Such assessments are based on the assumption that AI spending will continue to expand far beyond the current circle of large technology companies and into the business world at large,» said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. The problem for this strategist is that Chinese AI models cost up to 100 times less than those developed by OpenAI and Anthropic, while many companies simply do not need the world’s most sophisticated model for their daily operations. «Of course, the fact that many of these Chinese models are open source makes their adoption even easier. The rest is basic economics. Lower demand for cutting-edge models in the US should force US suppliers to reduce prices to remain competitive. Lower prices would compress income expectations, making it increasingly difficult to justify exorbitant valuations «OpenAI generates about $25 billion in annual revenue against a valuation of $852 billion, while Anthropic is on track to reach about $47 billion in annual revenue despite being valued at nearly $1 trillion. This means that investors are paying about 34 times OpenAI’s revenue and about 21 times Anthropic’smultiples that leave very little room for price pressure or competitive disruption.» Given that these two companies are at the center of the US AI ecosystem, Any downward revaluation could send shockwaves through chipmakerscloud service providers, data center operators, construction companies and, ultimately, the banks that have helped finance much of the AI boom.
ECONOMY AND OTHER MARKETS
On a macro level, this Monday’s agenda lacks relevant references, but in the coming days the weekly unemployment data or the Services and manufacturing PMI for July. In other markets, the euro depreciates 0.05% ($1.1434), and the ounce of gold earn 0.05% ($4,020). The 10-year American bond yield is revalued to 4.558% and the bitcoin loses 0.43% ($64,100).
