With the hourglass of 2025 about to expire, it’s time to look to the future. 2026 promises to be another positive year for equities, although is not free of risks and with an unequal impact by sectors. However, Bank of America (BofA) is clear two Spanish values to bet on, which he includes in his list of preferred securities for next year: one is up around 40% so far this year and the other, more than 70%.
The first of these names is none other than that of Ferrovial. The company chaired by Rafael del Pino receives a price improvement up to 67 euros by Bank of America, about eight euros more than in its previous valuation. According to these analysts, who reiterate their clear ‘buy’ recommendation on the value, Ferrovial could rise more than 15% from current levels. The second name is that of another Spanish construction company: ACS. For BofA, the firm led by Florentino Pérez is worthy of reaffirming not only its ‘buy’ advice, but also raising the target price of the Hochtief and Turner parent company to 97 eurosone more than in his previous study. From the latest closing prices, this valuation also paints over 15% upside potential for the company.
THE QUEEN OF THE HIGHWAYS
In the case of Ferrovial, BofA believes that the highways managed by the Spanish company in North America will be the undisputed protagonists of the next year. According to these experts, the ‘significant’ pricing powerboth in the United States and Canada, will be key in this aspect, as they anticipate that operating profit (EBITDA) doubles in the period 2025-2029. This is supported by the «very solid» economic environment in the geographies where Ferrovial operates, such as Dallas (Texas), the state of Virginia or North Carolina, through managed lanes on highways. However, the great jewel in the crown is none other than Canadian Highway 407 ETR. Considered the largest concessioned highway in the world, the 407 ETR is a 108-kilometer, fully electronic, open-access toll highway located in the Greater Toronto Area in the Canadian province of Ontario. «It plays an important role in relieving congestion on roads in the Greater Toronto Area. Every week, more than three million people travel on the 407 ETR«, explains the company on its website. In this sense, the announcement of rate increases and which, according to BofA, could result in an average increase of up to 25%. This figure is 10 percentage points above the consensus forecast and projects revenue growth of 20% for next year and around 23% of EBITDA… and the risks «point upwards.»
«We expect pricing power to continue to be considerable, with an increase of 10% annually between 2027 and 2029. In addition, we foresee EBITDA CAGR growth of 15% between this year and 2029, (which represents a) cumulative growth close to 102%,» explains the North American firm. In fact, although elasticity is «historically low», they consider that there may be «mixing effects» and, despite this, they think that toll revenue growth in 2026 «will not differ much from our estimate». Furthermore, the macroeconomic context in Canada, especially in the province of Ontario, supports his thesis, as some key indicators point to «strong population growth» and «robust GDP forecasts», and the median net income in Toronto is higher than the national one. This same line of thinking applies to highways managed in other North American geographies, such as Texas or Virginia, since these states present metrics «significantly better than the national average.» «We believe that this positions Ferrovial assets well to continue charging premium prices due to time savings and reliability of travel time», explain these analysts, who also believe that they will be able to take advantage of «significantly higher» income in the exploitation of the New Terminal 1 of New York JFK International Airport. In total, the five projects ‘managed lanes’with a internal rate of return (IRR) of between 14% and 28%percentages «well above» the cost of equity (CoE), which is around 6.6%. Likewise, its valuations suggest multiples of between 6 and 18 times the money invested by Ferrovial between 4 and 12 years after its entry into operation. On the other hand, Bank of America also positively values Ferrovial’s preselection for two ‘greenfield’ projects – which are started from scratch, without any pre-existing construction or infrastructure on the ground – such as the I-285 and I-24 highways. Additionally, he is expected to be shortlisted for I-77 South. Final awards are expected to be announced in the middle of next year. Finally, these experts see in a possible inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index an important catalyst for the company. The official announcement for the rebalancing of the index is scheduled for next Friday, December 12 after the close of the North American market. BofA estimates that inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 would lead to Passive funds buy approximately $1.1 billion in Ferrovial shares. Furthermore, membership in the index could, over time, be positive for the stock’s liquidity and also increase its visibility among the ever-coveted American investors.
THE JEWEL OF DATA CENTERS
Regarding ACS, BofA is clear about the reason why it is necessary to bet on the company chaired by Florentino Pérez: artificial intelligence (AI).
And the Spanish company has not only become the largest international contractor in the United States, but also in the largest builder of data centers in the country thanks to its subsidiary Turner. In fact, this name is BofA’s main reason for optimism with the group, since, at its recent Capital Markets Day, ACS presented an «optimistic» outlook for Turner, estimating 30% EBITDA growth and 3.9% EBITDA margin for next year.
«Data centers in the US represent 35% of its portfolio (16% of the ACS group portfolio). We see that Turner has an enterprise value of 19.3 billion euros, with ACS’s share rising to 15.4 billion. We project it to achieve a revenue growth rate (CAGR) of 17% between 2025-28 and an EBITDA CAGR of more than 28% in the same period, contributing significantly to the profit growth of Hochtief and ACS,» details Bank of America. These forecasts point to accumulated growth in revenues of 88% and EBITDA of 170% in the next four years.
Likewise, ACS expects generate revenues of between 20,000 million and 25,000 million euros in 2030 in its global data center engineering and construction business, with an EBITDA margin of 5-6%. This, these analysts point out, is equivalent to between 1.2 billion and 1.3 billion EBITDA, an increase of 800 million euros compared to the 500 million estimated in 2025. «We consider these forecasts for 2026 to be very encouraging, with more than 60% year-on-year growth in revenue from data center projects,» says BofA. However, these analysts warn that visibility is «lower» towards the end of the decade. However, BofA highlights that Turner’s profitability has already improved significantly in this last year (+60 basis points), coinciding with an increase in the weight of data centers… and this trend should continue as it continues to gain weight in the company’s and group’s portfolio. In fact, BofA points out, these figures highlight that these data center projects are «quite more profitable» than other types of construction. In this sense, these experts point out that the risk of materials and subcontractors is transferred to the suppliers and only assumes the risk related to the allocation of its own resources: the client provides the design and hires the designer, while Turner executes the project according to the design provided, with only minor adjustments during execution. In addition, Turner employees are almost exclusively administrative, which leads to a high figure of income per employee compared to the sector average. On the other hand, BofA also values positively the ‘joint venture’ announced with GIP (BlackRock) to develop and operate data centers globally. The joint venture will start from the portfolio of 1.7 GW under development that ACS currently has in Europe, the United States and Australia, with the objective of reaching 3 GW of capacity by 2030. The transaction values these assets (100%) at approximately €2 billion, composed of a cash payment of approximately €1 billion plus a variable payment of up to €1 billion, subject to the achievement of milestones. predefined commercials. ACS is also evaluating a additional pipeline of more than 11 GW in Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific.
Finally, these analysts see in the SR 400 Highway another important catalyst for the firm. In August of last year, a consortium formed by ACS, Acciona and Meridiam won the project to design, build and operate the SR-400 managed rail in Atlanta, beating the consortium led by Ferrovial.
The total investment will be 10.8 billion dollarss, the works are expected to begin in 2026 and finish in 2031, with an operation and maintenance period of an additional 50 years from opening. Based on Ferrovial’s track record in the United States, BofA estimates that the SR 400 ‘managed lane’ could contribute to profits already in the next decade and aims to a «mid-double-digit» rate of returna figure somewhat lower than the more mature projects of the Del Pino firm, but in line with that of projects such as I-66 or I-77 «Although ACS has revalued, we estimate that trades at 12.5 times its estimated enterprise value/EBIT by 2026with a discount compared to Hochtief (13.8x) and compared to engineering and construction comparables in the US (23.2x on average and up to 37x maximum)», points out BofA. A comparison, he adds, that he considers «relevant», since the Spanish group obtains around 50% of its net profit in the US and has a «prominent» exposure to the construction of data centers in the US, as they represent 16% of its portfolio compared to the 0-5% in comparables listed in the US. Bank of America also points out its significant discount compared to Australian companies, the second most important geography for ACS, and its exposure to other important segments, such as the energy transition, defense and industry.
