For the analyst, the degradation of the fiat system will boost bitcoin. «Devaluation is destroying people,» says Javish. The price of gold is approaching $5,000 (USD) per ounce, after setting a string of all-time highs. The move occurs with no visible correlation to bitcoin (BTC). The digital currency remains in a corrective phase since the record of $126,000 reached in October. Despite this short-term divergence, analysts and managers highlight structural similarities between both assets. In particular, its role as a scarce asset as a hedge against fiat monetary devaluation and unlimited printing. That reading keeps some long-term bullish expectations high for bitcoineven if its price shows recent weakness. James Lavish, fund manager, focused on the performance of the metals complex. «Are you paying attention? Gold is up about 80% in one year, platinum is up 175%, and silver is up an impressive 200% in one year,» he said. In his vision, “the devaluation is not only underway, but it is destroying people.”
The price of gold went from $2,600 to almost $5,000 in one year. Source: TradingView. According to his view, the debate no longer concerns the direction of the BTC price. “The next question is not if bitcoin will rise again, but when,” he said. In his opinion, it is inevitable that bitcoin as an asset with scheduled issuance will not be favored in the search for refuge against fiat devaluation. Dan Tapiero, investor and founder of the 50T Funds capital fund, also referred to the precious metal rally as a leading indicator for bitcoin. “If you’re trying to figure out if there is a new world order, a top-down revaluation of this nature is very rare in history,” he said. He stressed that gold is “a $35 trillion asset that doubled in two years.” For the investor, that process is not limited to gold: “the revaluation of other assets will proceed.” In that framework, he believes that BTC is the “next” one. The issuance of bitcoin, through mining, is reduced by half through halving every four years. This cut will happen until its total capacity is exhausted: 21 million BTC, something planned for the year 2140. This makes it even seen as an improved asset from gold, of which it is unknown how much remains to be extracted on Earth.
BTC has appreciated with each halving, with incoming demand seeing value in its scarcity. Source: TradingView.
Bitcoin between digital gold and risk asset dilemma
From Ark Invest, Cathie Wood, CEO of the company, offered a broader reading on the relationship between both assets. He stressed that, despite the narrative of BTC as digital gold, “surprisingly, bitcoin and gold are not correlated in the full market cycle.” He highlighted that, since the end of the stock bear market in 2022, “gold is up about 165–170%, while bitcoin is up about 360%,” despite its recent drop. The volatility of the digital currency is much greater and tends to respond downwards in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, like risk assets, despite its fundamentals as digital gold. In that sense, Wood maintained that bitcoin combines functions that are often considered opposite. “We believe bitcoin is both a risk asset and ultimately a safe haven asset,” he said. In addition, he highlighted that «it is a hedge against inflation, with an issue that grows only 0.85% annually, and also a hedge against deflation, because it has no counterparty risk, unlike the traditional banking system.» For the executive, “bitcoin did a lot of work as a risk asset” these years. “Institutions are entering via spot ETFs and are studying the asset cautiously, trying to understand the four-year cycle,” he added.
We believe bitcoin represents three revolutions in one: a rules-based global monetary system that competes with fiat currencies, a technological revolution, and the leadership of a new asset class. Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Invest.
Regarding the price, the businesswoman warned that “we could retest the area of 80,000 to 90,000 dollars.” Although he hopes that “that test will be successful” and he will head into another bull market.
Retail and institutional enthusiasm
Amid the divergence shown by metal and digital currency, enthusiasts call for calm. Among them is the on-chain analyst known as Checkmate, who stated: “There are bitcoiners who could not support six months of gold rising. Their conviction melted when they saw that gold had what is a normal positive year for corn (after bitcoin had two of them in a row, by the way).” The analyst alluded to historical debates between defenders of different assets. “Peter Schiff has felt this way for 17 years, and soon he will feel this way again,” he said. In a sarcastic tone, he added that “his silver hair grew waiting for silver to grow.” In his message, he also urges to avoid extreme positions. “Both assets are rising considerably,” he distinguished in terms of the long term, so he sees it as logical to have both. And he concluded with a general warning: “Fiat has no bottom.”
The US dollar has lost more than 96% of its value since 1913. Source: Bitbo. Interest is not limited to the retail segment. On Wall Street, Bitwise yesterday launched an exchange-traded fund (ETF) with exposure to bitcoin, gold, silver, other precious metals and mining stocks. The fund offers exposure to assets that cannot be easily inflated or manipulated as a hedge against fiat devaluation.
A still early market
Still, the narrative of bitcoin as “digital gold” lives with episodes that are not consistent with that idea. In this same week, its price reacted to macroeconomic factors such as the stock market, as reported by BitcoinDynamic. Among them, the rise in Japanese bond yields and Donald Trump’s tariff threats, which were later reversed. Mike McGlone, Bloomberg commodities strategist, warned that these movements are not isolated. For the analyst, bitcoin works as a leading indicator of risk assets. The stock market, although it corrected, remains close to historical highs, which for the analyst may be about to change. He foresees a deeper slide for stocks if BTC continues to decline. The current divergence with gold, then, does not invalidate the thesis of bitcoin as a long-term hedgeas the understanding of its properties grows. Rather, it would reinforce the idea that both assets respond to different times and dynamics within the same global monetary process that suffers the ravages of the fiat system. Its adoption is still in an early stage which means that, in the face of global tensions, it sees exits instead of entries like gold. As analyst Joe Consorti summarized, expressing the voice of the bulls, «the collapse of bitcoin due to geopolitical escalation, instead of competing with gold and silver, tells us how far ahead we are.» It took centuries for gold to earn the role of reserve of value against crises. It is understandable that bitcoin has not yet reacted as such to macroeconomic shocks. Although, even so, at just 17 years old, BTC is seen as the asset that will follow in the metal’s footsteps.
