Wall Street has turned downward this Thursday to close with outstanding sales (Dow Jones: -0.84%; S&P 500: -1.56%; Nasdaq: -2.16%) after Wednesday’s rises on the New York stock market, and after beginning the session with strong purchases due to the optimism (which has also faded) that had been awakened in the market Nvidia’s quarterly results. And the American indices have been pressured by a employment report better than expected, which dampens expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. The semiconductor giant, the most valuable company in the world by market capitalization, announced last night a net profit of 31,910 million, 65% moreand raised its revenue forecasts for the future. Specifically, Nvidia projects revenue of $65 billion for the next quarter, more than $3 billion above its previous estimate. Jensen Huang, CEO and founder of Nvidia, is clear: Artificial intelligence (AI) is not only not in a bubble, but has entered a «virtuous circle». «From our point of view, we see something very different. The demand for computing continues to accelerate and multiply in both training and inference, growing exponentially in both cases. The AI ecosystem is scaling rapidly, with more creators of basic models, more AI startups, in more sectors and in more countries. AI is present everywhere, doing everything, simultaneously,» he declared.
OPTIMISM AMONG INVESTORS…
These figures were the reference most anticipated by the markets after several days of high volatility due to fear that AI was in a bubble that was close to bursting. Although it seems that they have not finished calming things down. Russ Mold, director of AJ Bell, points out that these figures are «as comforting as a hot cup of tea on a cold day»since, although they do not finish answering the underlying questions, They calm a market that was on the verge of a nervous breakdown.
Other analysts point out the strength of its figures and go so far as to affirm that Nvidia «has the energy that most companies can only dream of». This last statement is from Dan Coatsworth, Mold’s colleague at AJ Bell, who believes the technology company’s continued exceeding of expectations will prevent a crisis from breaking out in the market in the short term. For Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, what was most impressive—though «perfectly consistent» with Nvidia’s track record—was that Jensen Huang said sales of Blackwell, its best and most powerful AI chip, «are through the roof.» «In summary, There was nothing in yesterday’s quarterly report that raised alarm. Nvidia did what it does best since 2023: surprise on the upside. And the bulls couldn’t resist. The AI ecosystem is scaling rapidly: with more base model manufacturers, more AI startups, in more industries and in more countries. lAI is going everywhere, doing everything, everything at once«adds this expert. However, there are still factors that deserve attention. For example, the ineffectiveness of some tools in recent times—it has been reported that ChatGPT or Copilot are not working well after the latest updates—or, perhaps more importantly, the concern generated by the large amount of money invested in AI without a high enough return. Some analysts believe that if investments continue not to pay off, there could be a strong correction in the market. One of the strongest defenders of this thesis is Michael burry. The famous investor, known for anticipating the 2008 financial crisis and for being the protagonist of the film ‘The Big Short’, has been accusing tech companies of inflating their profits. He also recently liquidated his Scion Asset Management fund, returning investors’ capital in the process, because he has long considered the market overvalued. Last night, Burry was back at it. In messages published on the social network underestimating depreciation expenses by calculating that the chips will have a longer life cycle than is realistic. «Just because something is used does not mean it is profitable.. «Airlines keep older airplanes for excess demand during Thanksgiving or Christmas, but they are only marginally profitable on those airplanes, and they are not really worth much,» he said. Likewise, Burry also accused Nvidia and the rest of the big tech companies of «recognize suspicious income» and cross-investments between the titans leading the AI race. «The actual final demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are financed by their distributors. One more: OpenAI is the key piece here. Can anyone name their auditor?» he stated.
…WITHOUT FORGETTING THE FED
But the market does not live on AI alone, although it sometimes seems difficult to believe. And the stock markets have also digested today the minutes of the last Fed meeting. The document, published yesterday, reflects «very divergent opinions» facing the December conclave on what decision the organization should make. «The majority considered that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate, given that the Committee would adopt a more neutral policy stance over time,» the text explains. However, «several participants» indicated that «did not necessarily see another 25 basis point reduction as appropriate at the December meeting.»
This has sunk the odds of a 25 basis point cut for investors. According to data from the FedWatch tool, there are now hardly any 33% probability that the Fed will execute a cut of a quarter of a percentage point in December, as contemplated in the agency’s forecasts. Exactly a month ago, the chances of a similar drop were almost triple: 98.8%.
In this sense, the market has been attentive to the employment in the United States. Even if it is from September, a figure that was not known when it was due due to the closure of the United States Government. The figures for the ninth month, which were published this Thursday, have surprised upwards with the creation of 119,000 new jobsbased on information provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The figure has been well above the 22,000 jobs of the previous month, and also the consensus forecast, which anticipated 50,000. As for the October data, it is better not to get our hopes up: perhaps we will never know how the US labor market did in the tenth month of 2025, as the White House itself recognized. For Link Securities experts, this would leave the Fed «without fundamental data when making its decisions» at a time of great uncertainty and an «unprecedented» division within the central bank.
COMPANIES AND OTHER MARKETS
At the business level, Walmart has been the protagonist after having raised its sales and profit forecasts for the entire fiscal year 2026 after beating estimates with its third quarter results. In other markets, the euro has depreciated against the dollar (-0.10%, $1.1525). He oilfor its part, has fallen moderately: Brent has been quoted at $63.10 and WT at $59.27. The ounce of gold has cut 0.16% ($4,076) and the silver1% ($50.25). He 10-year US bond yield has relaxed to 4.096%. He bitcoin It has not managed to recover after the latest falls and has lost 2.8%, to $87,000.
