The Ibex 35 falls 2.1% in the week in a scenario of high geopolitical tension

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The Ibex 35 rebounds this Friday after yesterday's large falls (Ibex: +0.34%, 10,686), although European markets such as Germany and France have fallen moderately. However, the Spanish selective says goodbye to another bad week that, once again, has been marked by the cooling of the prospects for rate cuts in the US after the publication of March CPI data that came out above expectations. Last week, the Spanish index lost 1.4% for the same reason after statements by several members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) that also affected the forecasts for rate cuts. Today has been its second consecutive negative week after four consecutive upwards for the Spanish selective, which has lost 2.1% in the last five days. The Ibex has closed in red for six consecutive days. Including last Friday, when it fell 1.58%, it fell by around 3%.
Prices have been greatly influenced by the high geopolitical tension that is being experienced in the world at the moment, with the United States warning of a practically imminent attack by Iran on Israel. «Markets appear poised for a potential significant geopolitical escalation in the coming days. A classic defensive strategy has been put in placeas participants reduce exposure and risk heading into the weekend, given the possibility of a significant gap risk at the market opening on Sunday,» explains Michael Brown, senior analyst at Pepperstone. Within the index, highlights the increases in energy, with Solaria, Endesa, Acciona and Naturgy rising with enthusiasm. On the cuts side, we find IAG, Meliá and Sabadell as the worst. In the Continuum, Audax soars after starting a share buyback program.


The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates stable this Thursday for the fifth consecutive meeting and gave its clearest signal yet of an upcoming rate cut, despite uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's next moves. «If the Governing Council's updated assessment of the inflation outlook, underlying inflation dynamics and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging towards the target on a sustained basis, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy tightening«, he said in a statement. Christine Lagarde, for her part, also left the door open to the expected rate cut in June by stating that «a few members of the ECB» were ready to lower interest rates already.
The ECB raised its key rate to a record 4% in September. Since then, it has left this rate unchanged at each meeting.


The week ends with a focus on the first quarter corporate results season, which begins today with the accounts of some US banks: JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and the management company BlackRock.
From a business point of view, but in our country Telefónica is closely followed since the operator holds its General Meeting of Shareholders, the first since SEPI and STC Group became shareholdersin which the appointment of almost half the Board of Directors and a share incentive plan for its directors of almost 200 million euros in shares.
The company has been in the news this week because CriteriaCaixa has announced a 5% stake in the operator. The presence of Spanish companies – including SEPI – in Telefónica's capital already reaches 15% compared to 9.9% for Saudi Telecom Company. Regarding the macro news of the day, today they have published March exports and imports in China. The former fell 7.5%, worse than expected and compared to the previous 7.1% increase. The latter fell 1.9%, also worse than expected and worse than the previous 3.5% rise. Besides, The final CPI data for March have been announced for several European countries, such as Germany, France and Spain (rebound to 3.2%). Likewise, the United Kingdom has published the GDP for February (grows 0.1%). On the other side of the Atlantic, in addition to the results, investors will pay attention to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Finally, note that the The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for Spain in 2024 to 1.9% compared to its previous estimate of 1.5%. In addition, it maintains the 2.1% expected for 2025.


The euro falls to 1.0645 dollars (-0.73%) after yesterday's ECB meeting. Oil rises around 1.3% on average. Brent is at $90.9 and West Texas at $86.22. He gold conquers 2,400 dollars (+1.72%, $2,413). Silver adds 2.78% ($29.03). Bitcoin is trading at $69,300 and Ethereum is trading at $3,440. The yield on the 10-year American bond falls to 4.52%.