Key facts: Historical pattern analysis allows anticipating future movements. According to a technical analyst, $100,000 will be a target price for bitcoin in this cycle. While bitcoin (BTC) remains in a corrective sideways range since the price record recorded six months ago, different historical data suggests a rebound is near. “The bull run of bitcoin in 2024 awaits a 6-week window,” says the analysis and trading group known as Made Easy Finance. According to their perspective, in this period, Two events should occur that would propel the currency to new all-time high prices in the two previous cycles. The first event is a waiting period of between 5 and 6 months after the halving, which is the reduction in half of the bitcoin issuance that occurs every four years. Bitcoin has usually taken that long to recover its peak prices from the previous cycle. It then typically spends another 6 months trying to reach new all-time highs. While the current cycle is different, since bitcoin reached a new all-time high a month before the halving that occurred in April, it has then continued to consolidate below it, as seen below. Therefore, for the analyst group, the pattern seen in previous cycles is still valid and could be repeated.
Bitcoin price over the past few months. Source: TradingView.
September 27 marks 5 months since the last halvingwhile October 17 is 6 months. Therefore, if bitcoin follows its historical trend, demand could be reactivated around such dates, causing its price to rise. As BitcoinDynamic reported, this coincides with the expected cut in interest rates in the United States this month, a policy that motivates risk demand, and the beginning of autumn in the northern hemisphere. This season tends to be positive for BTC, since markets usually rise during it due to the reactivation of economic activities after the holidays. “During this period, we should see bitcoin forming bullish technical signals throughout the chart,” says Made Easy Finance. Among the possible indicators to observe, His gaze focuses on Coppock's curvewhich it considers the second event that must occur in the next 6 weeks. The Coppock Curve is a momentum indicator developed by analyst Edwin Coppock in the early 1960s. It is mainly used to identify bullish reversals of an asset. To do this, it measures its 10-period weighted moving average (usually monthly) over two time periods. When the Coppock Curve moves from negative to positive values, a bullish reversal signal is interpreted. The analyst group emphasizes that, in the stock market, it managed to successfully provide this signal after major crises such as those of 2008, 2016 and 2020. Likewise, it has also done so with bitcoin, as shown below.
Coppock Curve Analysis of Bitcoin Price Source: Seeking Alpha “If Bitcoin recovers to $70,000 by October 17 and the Coppock Curve signals a bullish signal, we will take a bullish bias on our Bitcoin-related trades,” Made Easy Finance warns. The coin is currently hovering around $58,000. The group clarifies, however, that sometimes the Coppock Curve indicates false trends, as do other trend-following indicators. Therefore, it stresses that it is essential to analyze it in conjunction with other aspects to predict price continuity.
“No indicator is perfect and indicators must be used in the right context for them to work. Context is the key word.” Made Easy Finance, a group providing analysis and trading strategies.
Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in this cycle, according to projections
Beyond short-term considerations, the analyst group sees bullish potential for the currency in the future due to the asset’s essence. “We strongly believe in the long-term prospects of bitcoin based on its design (decentralized, limited supply, etc.) and the utilities that are derived from its design,” he highlights. However, he stresses that the magnitude of the asset’s returns has decreased with each cycle, as shown in the following graph. The first bull cycle saw a 100-fold increase (from $12 to $1,200), the second 32-fold (from $600 to $19,000), the third 8-fold (from $8,500 to $69,000). “Extrapolating the observation, it is suggested that the current bull market will conservatively produce a 2- to 3-fold return,” he says. That would take its price to $100,000. While such an increase is not as significant as previous ones, it concludes that it is still quite good as far as a financial asset is concerned.