He oil has extended falls which already suffered last week, after its price Delive in the minimum of 2021. This Monday, the price of Brent has fallen 1.75%, to the area of $ 64.44, while the West Texas It has dropped 1.65%, to $ 60.96 after losing the barrel. Brent has come to fall above 4%. The growing tensions between the United States and China confirm the fears of investors that a world trade war is underway and have fueled the fears of a recession, which would reduce the demand for crude. Last week, China's Ministry of Finance announced that it will impose a 34% tariff to all goods imported from the United States As of April 10 in response to tariffs imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump, for which It will also tax with 34% imports from China. For his part, Trump has expressed after collapses that are affecting the market in general that he does not want «that nothing falls, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.» «We have a commercial deficit of one billion dollars with China, we lose hundreds of billions of dollars a year with China. And,, Unless we solve that problem, I'm not going to make an agreement«Although Trump has excluded imports of oil, gas and refined products from new tariffs, the trade war can enliven inflation and decelerate economic growth, Weighing on oil prices. In fact, the president of the Federal Reserve (FED), Jerome Powell, has already warned that the tariffs that the US president is imposing «will cause more inflation and less growth.» «While uncertainty remains high, it is now evident that tariff increases will be significantly higher than expected. The same is likely to happen with economic effects, which will include greater inflation and slower growth. The magnitude and duration of these effects remain uncertain. While it is very likely that tariffs generate at least temporarily an increase in inflation, it is also possible that the effects are more persistent, «he said. In addition, the surprising decision of the OPEC+ to increase the offer in May more than expected He has thrown more firewood. Specifically, he has decided to advance in his plan to gradually eliminate oil production cuts and has announced that he will add 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May. The amount involves pumping the equivalent of three monthly sections of those initially planned. ING analysts highlight that oil prices «have had His worst week since October 2023with the risk assets affected by the reciprocal tariffs of US President Donald Trump and the reprisals we have begun to see. «» The magnitude of the tariffs, added to the OPEC+decision, clearly surprised speculators. This is reflected in the Petroleum settlement ferocity And in the fact that speculators increased their long net positions before the announcement of tariffs on April 2, «they explain. They add that» the magnitude of the liquidation suggests that The market is discounting a significant fall in demand as the fear of a recession increases. The current price levels imply a demand drop in approximately 1 million barrels per day during the remainder of the year, which would maintain the demand for oil without interannual changes. «» Petroleum prices also continue to fall, since operators estimate that Demand will be reduced drasticallygiven the alarming signals for world trade, «they point out in Hargreave Lansdown.
