Mexico wins time in the commercial war thanks to an imminent security agreement

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By TP


The new commercial order to which Donald Trump is subjecting to the world has a special chapter for Mexico, for something they are main partners and exchange 800,000 million dollars a year in goods. But that is not the only thing that unites and separates them, so is a border of more than 3,000 kilometers through which weapons and drugs cross that leave thousands of dead by Fentanil and to the south, thousands of deaths for violence. These circumstances, added to migration, have contaminated relationships that have been negotiated for decades in different windows and that today allow the US president to play the good and bad poli with their weak partner. This Thursday touched the good face: Mexico will keep 25% of tariffs that concern products outside the free trade agreement that unites them, while the remaining 84% of the goods are exempt from punishment. President Claudia Sheinbaum gets a special treatment that translates into another 90 days of respite to continue negotiating. Some ambiguities in the friendly message Trump has sent to glimpse, however, that the war cannot end. «Trump is not reliable, as long as his mandate lasts, everything will be in question, nothing guarantees that in the new negotiations for these longer term agreements that the president has not used the same strategies,» says internationalist expert Carlos Bravo. It is important that the tariff war has been redirected towards respect for the Commercial Treaty (TMEC), but that does not mean that the threat strategy in exchange for results in other policies, used by the Republican so far, does not extend what remains of this year and everyone who comes, when other aspects of said treaty are discussed that have nothing to do with tariff Cite some of those mentioned by the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard. An agreement between the two countries on security, that is, on criminal organizations and its fight, is about to be signed, according to President Sheinbaum, and is taken for granted that has been necessary to achieve this three -month relief. But it is not ruled out that the ghost of drug trafficking, drugs or migration will not be agitated again in what remains to be negotiated. For now, President Sheinbaum points somewhat, she has received the praises of her team, the businessmen's parabienes and has been fired with applause in her morning conference, in which she has reported that they already prepare the report of the first year of government, for which she will feature this ace in the sleeve. It is necessary, however, to know the terms of the aforementioned security agreement and what possible concessions did Mexico or be to do under that ambiguous allusion of Trump to the «immediate elimination its numerous non -tariff commercial barriers.» The conversations continue. «We are still facing a very poor informative environment, based on statements by both governments, which manage what they want and do not want to tell, their times and their costs. Credibility begins to falter,» says Bravo, although it remains optimistic with the new 90 days, which also involve a relief for business and Mexican economy as a whole. Contrary to what happened with Brazil, where President Lula da Silva has not consented that the judicial situation of former president Bolsonaro is a currency and is forced to accept tariffs of 50%, Mexico has many more dependencies and has to continue using that tactic of «cold head» and mutual respect that this Thursday has been displayed as successful key. «The important thing with Trump is not to confront, defend what of ours and look for exits to his approaches,» said Sheinbaum, who had previously maintained a 40 -minute phone call with his American counterpart. «A splendid management» of the negotiation by the Mexican, said the Ebrard Secretary «without adulthood.» In similar terms, Foreign Minister Juan Ramón de la Fuente has expressed. All seem to closed a crisis that will give rise to agreements «that cover the following years», approaching in these 90 days the renewal of the TMEC and some stability in relations. «It is not an extension,» said Ebrard, who also ensures that the obtained has come «without concessions from Mexico. You can not better.» The allusions to the fentanil and other barriers that have nothing to do with the tariffs, slid in Trump's message, however, that complete peace has not arrived. Despite this, the president has described the end of this chapter as «the best possible agreement compared to what is obtained by the other nations.» «I believe that the affairs of the tariffs will not return, but well …», he has left at suspensive points before the veleities of the Republican. «If we are in a new stage in relations with the United States, it is in that of diplomacy by monthly payments,» exemplifies the analyst Carlos Bravo. «We have to cultivate skepticism,» says Trump's future explosions on the account of border security and posters. Mexico today grants applause in view of what is obtained by other nations, but its future is more complex. The Free Trade Agreement remains ahead, of which it is still unknown if it will be a simple renegotiation or a complete review to Trump's taste and if it will continue to be maintained between “the three friends”, Canada, the United States and Mexico, as a pillar for the economic strengthening of North America or will be negotiated separately, a divide and win that the American could play.