He oil He does not find his course. The crude has fallen again in the last days after the last tariff threat of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, to Mexico and Canada. Thus, the Brent crude moves away from the 82 dollars that marked after the announcement of the new sanctions to China … but is also far enough from the minimum of 70 dollars that it marked in December, when the market focused on the potential excess excess this year's offer. And the forecast of Goldman Sachs is that things do not change too much.
North American bank giant experts point out that crude It will continue to move in the coming months in the range between 70 and 85 dollarsa price range that define as their «Ideal Point» ('Sweet Spot', in English). «Although the uncertainty about US policy is still high, we hope that Brent prices continue to oscillate in our range of $ 70-85 under a new US administration, which pursues both the US energy domain and energy affordability. OPEC+, the double objective of the US administration to dominate the energy sector and maintain affordable prices, and probable dynamic management of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) support the range, «they explain from The American firm. In fact, these experts They adjust their forecasts for the average Brent price in 2025 and 2026 to 78 and 73respectively, and forecast a maximum of $ 80 between April and May of this year. Previously, Goldman Sachs predicted a price of 76 and $ 71 a barrel for crude in 2025 and 2026, respectively. «The price increase reflects that the increase of 4 dollars per barrel of the minor commercial inventories of the OECD in the temporal margins (cash prices less prices in the long term) compensates for the reduction of 2 dollars of our long price forecast Term, «says the American firm.
Content risks
In this context, Goldman Sachs believes that There are enough factors capable of containing ups of crude oil above the upper fork, but also to limit any fall below the lower fork of the range.
On the one hand, the «high» surplus capacitythe «Signals» of the eight OPEC+ producers (which announced voluntary production cuts in 2023) to increase production When the Brent stood below $ 80, and The objective of the US administration to achieve affordable prices Energy limit the rise in prices in most scenarios. «Although the main uprising risk for oil prices is the hardening of US sanctions, we believe that US political leaders want to prevent the Brent will exceed 85 dollars/barrel, which corresponds approximately with the emotional threshold of $ 3.5 per gallon for retail prices in the US, above which price increases receive unusually large media attention, «they explain. On the other, the downward trend of prices could be limited by OPEC+ decisions to expand production when the Brent fell to 70 dollarsas well as for The «solid cohesion» of the oil cartel «As compliance has increased, the elasticity of oil demand prices (including SPR) and the objective of the US administration to dominate the energy sector.» According to these strategists, The US oil supply gain trend to slow down «abruptly» when the Brent falls below $ 70 (The equilibrium price for many shale producers) indicates that prices above this threshold «favor strong continued growth of the US offer and the expansion of their energy domain.» «We have also increased our HEPPLACEMENT HYPOTHESIS of the US SPR to 150,000 barrels per day in the second semester of 2025, once Congress replaces the shopping fund of the SPR, and 200,000 barrels per day in 2026 based on the first signs of The Trump administration. We believe that SPR purchases would accelerate if prices were lower than expected«They add. On the other hand, the American firm has reduced its forecast of commercial inventories in land of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),» especially in the first half of 2025 «, for two reasons. First, first, by Minor supply deliveries outside the OPEC and USA that have reduced their projection of inventories of the OECD, for which they now estimate a «slight» surplus of 200 barrels per day in 2025, half that their previous forecast. And secondly, because they assume that Russia sanctions will «temporarily» increase «oil inventories in transit.
The tariff risk
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs believes that Tariffs proposed by Donald Trump could have a positive effect for crude … in the short term. It should be remembered that the American president has threatened with Impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, as well as BRICS countries and Chinese products.
This scenario, says the US firm, assumes that Iran's supply decreases by 1,000 barrels per day «persistently» from March, «reflecting a stricter application of sanctions, and that the group of the 8 of the OPEP+ increases production between April 2025 and February 2026 «. If so, Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent would rise to $ 87 a barrel in May before «gradually standardized.»
The second bullish scenario contemplated by the American firm contemplates a decrease of 1,000 «persistent» daily barrels in Iran and many others in Russia, although temporarily in the case of the latter, as well as the aforementioned increase in production. In this scenario, Brent reaches A maximum of $ 93 per barrel in February.
«In both scenarios, the impact on the long -term prices of a lower sanctioning supply is limited because we assume that the OPEC group of the OPEC+ would stabilize the market by increasing production for longer than in our base case,» they point out. However, risks tend down in the medium term. According to Goldman, this is because, if the US imposes a generalized 10% tariff in the third quarter, the Brent could fall to 60 dollars by the end of 2026, «due to the weakening of the growth of the global GDP and the stagnation of the Petroleum demand. » In fact, these strategists underline that the Canadian oil market is already reflecting a high risk of US tariffs on Canadian crude imports. In this sense, Goldman Sachs predicts that the inclusion of Canadian oil in a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico «probably» initially raised gasoline prices in the west of the US, «but, eventually, eventually I would press crude oil prices globally (due to lower demand), especially in Canadawhere producers have limited export options. » 12% in 2025. We continue to recommend oil producers to cover the downward withdrawal risks of our rank with trios of producers, «concludes the American firm.