Fifty million. A round, symbolic number, apparently triumphal. Spain is about to reach – for the first time in its history – the 50 million inhabitants. But this demographic milestone, rather than being a sign of population vigor is the reflection of a deep, complex and structural transformation. We are also growing economically, more than the countries of our environment in recent years; But, above all, we are transforming ourselves faster. The figure contains an apparent paradox: we reach 50 million not for having more children, but for incorporating more people born outside our borders. It is the result of migratory flows that, beyond a trend, have become the last 25 years a structural need to sustain our economy, our welfare state and our social cohesion. In a country with one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, and at the same time with one of the longest and increasingly aging populations, such growth, being a symptom of economic vitality, raises over a whole world different from that of the traditional organic growth of the Spanish population of previous decades. This new country that emerges – more diverse, more urban, more fragmented in small homes – demands a different look. Because behind the number there is a challenge: how to turn this new demographic reality into an opportunity for progress, inclusion and sustainability. And how to avoid, as indicated in another article in these same pages a year ago, that demography continues to run over. Birth in Spain continues at historically low levels. The fertility rate barely exceeds 1.1 children per woman, far from the generational replacement threshold. In fact, our vegetative growth has been negative for almost a decade, and the only reason the total population increases and does not decrease is immigration. About ten million people born abroad – of which 2.6 million have acquired Spanish nationality – reside today in Spain. More than 80% have come to our country in the last 25 years, and their relative weight does not stop growing. So much that, according to the latest projections of the INE, when the current generation of the Baby Boomers, mine, about 40% of residents will have been born out of the country. Fortunately. If so, the demographic winter – compared to other European countries, and not only – would return us to that country of less than 35 million inhabitants – instestable in that future due to the ages structure – that saw that generation was born more than half a century. This fact, by itself, reveals the magnitude of the change we are living. Effectively, it is not just about how many we are, but how we are. The structure by age is «unbalanced» quickly. The proportion of older people increases, while the young base narrows. The dependency ratio – the number of inactive people for each active person – approaches at levels that tension the pension system, health and care. In this context, the labor market becomes a key space of integration and sustainability. We need to incorporate, form and retain diverse talent, adapt to new cultural and social realities, and increase productivity to compensate for the aging of the workforce. Also to increase a per capita income that does not just take off in this new framework. Households are also changing. As I said, they are getting smaller, more urban, more lonely. More than half of the Spanish households are formed by one or two people, and in just a decade there will be two out of three. And at the same time, territorial concentration in large urban poles intensifies, while many rural and peripheral areas suffer a population regression that threatens, if it does not condemn, its viability. This phenomenon has deep implications in the housing model, in urban planning, in the provision of public services. The demand for accessible housing, well located and adapted to new forms of coexistence becomes a structural priority. The cultural, linguistic and generational diversity that accompanies this population growth raises new challenges of social cohesion. Integration cannot be just an administrative issue; It must be an active, transverse policy, which covers education, employment, health, citizen participation. Coexistence in a more plural society demands dialogue, mutual recognition and policies that foster the sense of belonging. Because the risk is not to be diverse, but not knowing how to manage that diversity. In this context, demography ceases to be a passive variable to become an active factor that conditions the country model. Reaching 50 million must be an opportunity to rethink our public policies, our strategic priorities, our vision of the future. We cannot afford this growth to be messy, unequal or unsustainable. We need a demographic strategy that not only manages the present, but also design the future and allow the productivity gap to be restored in front of the countries around us, our historic Achilles heel. A strategy that articulate housing, education, health, integration and territorial sustainability. Demographic planning should be a state policy. It is not enough to react to the data; You have to anticipate trends. We must design cities that respond to new life forms, educational systems that prepare for a more diverse society, models of attention that respond to aging, and migratory policies that not only regulate, but integrate. Governing demography is governing the country. Alkanzar 50 million inhabitants is not an arrival point, but a starting point. It is the threshold of a new stage in the demographic history of Spain, marked by diversity, longevity, mobility and transformation of social ties. But also because of the urgency of adapting our structures, our policies and our mentalities to a reality that is already here. Demography, in addition to numbers, is a matter of balances, cohesion, sustainability. It really is the backdrop on which the great challenges of the country are projected: the productive model, the pension system, housing, education, health, integration. And it is the mirror in which our collective decisions, our priorities, are reflected, but also our omissions. If we do not govern demography, it will be the demography who governs us. And he will do it with the same or more speed with which he has changed in recent years. Therefore, reaching 50 million must be a call to action: to plan, to integrate, to innovate. And to be a country more aware of its diversity.Daniel Manzano He is a doctor in Economics and AFI partner.
