This week’s meeting in Tianjin of China’s leaders, India, Russia and North Korea, among 20 other countries, with the occasion of a summit of the Shanghai cooperation organization, marks the turning point before the emergence of a new multipolar world order. Both in the geopolitical and economic field, the global south (the aforementioned developing countries) is empowered. While the European Union loses bellows on the geopolitical board, who move the pieces of this chess are mostly authoritarian leaders who seek to expand their action of action. Actors of what has been given in calling the global south to which Trump has joined, if we consider its modus operandi. Reflect what are the factors that have favored the union of forces of countries such as China and India, unthinkable two decades ago, and the consequences that this will have for the global south and for the EU. United, with tariffs up and down like a roller coaster. This is leading to a restructuring of international trade flows and affecting investments. For example, trade between Russia and Central Asia has grown exponentially in recent months. And 50% tariffs imposed by the US to India that entered into force at the end of August, if they are maintained, will be an important spon of trade favorable to Euroasy countries. Second, the emergency of China as an innovative power in green technologies, read solar panels, electric vehicles and in artificial intelligence (Deepseek) is on its way to consolidating and can serve as a catalyst in Asia and in the countries of the Global South that align with China. Above all, if India narrows its cooperation with China in this area. India and China being the two most populous economies on the planet, an intensification of their geoeconomic relationships – paying their border problems – will benefit its economic growth, that of the region and its commercial and geostrategic partners. Democracy and solidarity. It is not being able to react with sufficient forcefulness in the face of geopolitical conflicts that threaten the stability of international institutions created after World War II. Its immigration policy leaves much to be desired in solidarity. Nor is it being agile enough to consolidate their agreements with important economic actors in Asia, as is the case of India. Finally, its weakness of weakness was revealed with the acceptance of the conditions of the recently proposed commercial agreement by the US, which implies the imposition of 15% tariff tariffs among signatory countries – increase internal and external commercial flows and also encourage economic development. The current protectionist trend – the return to tariffs – will lead to the opposite. Empirical evidence reinforces the theory, with the numerous academic works that point to the creation of trade caused by commercial agreements. In a job with Shanping Yang, published a decade ago we analyzed the effects of creation and deviation of trade derived from the Asean -China Free Trade Agreement. The results showed a substantial trade creation with a great increase in their exports to the countries of the agreement, confirming the promoted of intra -regional trade. The agreements serve as a way so that the Global South defends its interests and extends its area of influence, while the EU should balance its commercial relationship with the need to defend its values in human rights, sustainability and fair competence. This forces to strengthen its strategic autonomy, diversify partners and advance in a commercial and investment policy that combines economic pragmatism with political coherence. In this sense, it will be crucial to conclude the negotiations of the Free Trade Agreement with India, whose thirteenth round is scheduled for next week. Geopolitical uncertainty and the reorganization of trade flow Global.Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso is a professor at the Universitat Jaume I and the University of Gontinga.
