Deutsche Bank lowers Enagás’ target price and reduces its profit forecast

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By TP


Deutsche Bank lowers Enagás target price until the 16.50 euros per share from the previous 17 euros per title and reiterates his advice to ‘keep’ the value before the publication of its results for the second quarter and the first half of 2026. Accounts that for the firm «should show in the second quarter a decrease similar to that observed in the firstreflecting the last year of the current regulatory period.» However, at Deutsche Bank they continue to anticipate a «significant» increase in profits from 2027as a consequence of the new regulatory proposals. «Even so, We have reduced our profit forecast by 5%now placing it more in line with the market consensus.» And these experts believe that the upcoming regulatory developments «continue to be the main focus of attention.» In this sense, it is worth remembering that last March, the CNMC (National Markets and Competition Commission) brought to public hearing the new remuneration methodology for gas networks, a proposal that introduces relevant improvements for the Transport business. The organization plans to maintain the current remuneration scheme, although updating the key parameters to adapt them to the new environment. Specifically, the proposal reviews the unit values ​​of investment and operation and maintenance (O&M) for the period 2027-2032, and introduces incentives linked to productivity and more efficient infrastructure management. Furthermore, it incorporates new mechanisms to reward assets already amortized and encourage the extension of their useful life, while introducing specific incentives linked to decarbonization, such as promoting biomethane, bioLNG or the introduction of hydrogen into the network. In the business of Distributionthe CNMC proposes a remuneration 2.3% higher than that of the previous period, maintaining the current model and adapting it to the evolution of gas demand. In the first quarter of 2026, Enagás obtained a recurring profit after taxes (BDI) of 56.9 million of euros, which represents a 12.7% more than in the first three months of 2025. This figure does not include the capital gain derived from the sale of 40% of Enagás Renewable at Hy24 for 48 million euros, which the company estimates «will generate a positive impact on the BDI of approximately 9.5 million euros in 2026» and which will be recorded in the second quarter accounts.

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