China has started 2026 with a strong expansion of its foreign trade. The country’s trade surplus reached $213.62 billion in the combined period of January and February, the highest level recorded for these two months, well above the $179.6 billion expected by analysts, according to official customs data. China usually groups data for January and February to avoid distortions arising from the change in the dates of the Lunar New Year. In this period, exports grew by 21.8% year-on-year, well above the 7.1% expected by consensus, while imports increased by 19.8%, compared to the expected 6.3%, reflecting the strength of the Asian giant’s trade despite trade tensions with the United States. By trade partners, trade with the US fell 16.9%, to 609.71 billion yuan, in a context marked by the tariffs still in force between both countries. In contrast, trade with the European Union increased by 19.9%, to 998.94 billion yuan, while trade with ASEAN grew by 20.3%, to 1.24 trillion yuan. The data confirm the strength of the Chinese export engine at the beginning of the year. According to ING, the 21.8% year-on-year growth represents the biggest advance since January 2022 and has been mainly driven by sectors such as semiconductors, automobiles and ships, in addition to the strong increase in exports of technological products. The bank highlights that the weakness in sales to the US has been more than offset by the increase in exports to other regions, with strong increases to Africa, the European Union, South Korea and Australia. In parallel, imports have also started the year strongly, driven above all by technological products and machinery, which can favor a greater trade balance and benefit China’s trading partners. The strong performance of trade also comes after Chinese inflation recorded its biggest rise in more than three years and the Government set a GDP growth target of between 4.5% and 5% during political meetings known as the “Two Sessions”. Despite the solid start to the year, analysts warn that the pace of trade growth could moderate throughout 2026, in an environment marked by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about the evolution of the world economy. However, ING points out that if the strength of global demand is maintained and pressure from the US is reduced, Chinese exports could continue to surprise upwards in the coming months.
