2024 is approaching its end and amid the enthusiasm generated by the apparent recovery of the economy in the last months of the year, concerns arise again that the feared recession will occur in 2025. This is a topic that has been touched on by all analysis firms in their forecasts. In the midst of an economy that shows strong traits of resilience, analysts they appear divided about the likelihood of an economic recession in the near future. Hence the forecasts for 2025 vary among experts. First of all, the analyzes by JP Morgan stand out, which calculate that there is a 45% chance of recession by the end of 2025. “While we recognize uncertainties related to the political context, we have not changed our assessment of the likelihood of a recession late next year,” said Bruce Kasman, global chief economist at JP Morgan. The bank makes these observations even though it believes that the global macroeconomic outlook It could become more fluid in 2025. This, as markets face increasing complexity.
In the coming months, the evolution of the business cycle will likely be determined by the interaction between macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy, with the added uncertainty of possible policy changes by the new US administration. JP Morgan.
The view that the Goldman Sachs team takes on the subject is a little different. This, after having stated last August – after the so-called “Black Monday” – that there was a 25% chance of recession. Now the signature has lowered the chances of recession for next year at 15%. Analysts cite positive economic data, although recognize increasing risks. «Fears of a recession have dissipated as the downside risks that had worried markets failed to materialize.» The company predicts that the US economy will exceed economists' expectations by 2025.
While the policy changes expected under Trump's presidency may be significant, analysts do not project that they will substantially alter the trajectory of the economy or monetary policy. Goldman Sachs Research.
In contrast, economists at the American Bankers Association they estimate in 30% the probability of a recession in the coming months, taking into account the persistence of certain levels of inflation. However, the Association notes that the interest rate cuts being carried out by the Federal Reserve are intended achieve a soft landingreducing inflation without triggering a recession. In that sense, it is expected that the disinflation processes vary from one country to another, due to the various imbalances between supply and demand.
For its part, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth 3.2% in the next 12 months«in a context of persistent inflation in the services sector and trade tensions.» The organization places the United States as the one with the highest growth among the countries with the most advanced economies with 2.2% growth; while China would lead Asia's emerging markets with 4.5%.
World growth is estimated at 3.2% by 2025. The same percentage closes in 2024. Source: IMF. For the IMF, will continue the wave of interest rate cuts that the Fed started. Something that can be positive. However, we must not forget that «geopolitical risks will also continue to be threats to global stability and growth.» With this he made reference to the wars being fought in Ukraine and the Middle East and to tensions that exist between several countries. Based on this, it recommends that States resort to a careful mix of policies to achieve price stability and create economic reserves. Instead, BlackRock's Global Outlook 2025 report suggests that the world economy has come out of the traditional «boom and bust» cycle and is undergoing fundamental change due to transformative forces. It mentions, among them, artificial intelligence technologies, the transition towards net zero carbon emissions, geopolitical fragmentation, demographic changes and the digitalization of finance. «These factors are reconfiguring long-term economic trajectories and giving rise to massive investments similar to those observed during the Industrial Revolution,» experts say. In this way, although the forecasts point to a more or less favorable outlook for 2025, most analyzes feel that the future remains uncertain. Hence, they recommend proactive financial planning to investors, including those participating in the bitcoin (BTC) market, in order to face possible challenges.