Key Facts: Next week will be highly volatile for bitcoin, according to Kaiko data. Historically, the month after the halving has been mostly positive. According to Kaiko Research, a research company on the cryptoasset market, “all eyes are on the bitcoin halving.” This is stated in its most recent report, which glimpses whether this event could function as a “selling of the news.” In the markets field, a news sale refers to an investor strategy that consists of selling an asset after the achievement of an expected event that had previously driven demand. This action, which occurs to take profits, creates downward pressure on the price when done massively. Kaiko Research indicates that The short-term impact of previous bitcoin halvings in the price it has been mixed. As shown in the following graph, in two of the three she has had in his history, she experienced an increase in the first month. On the other hand, in the one that did not happen, the currency went down during the first 3 months.
Performance of the price of bitcoin after the three halvings it has had in its history. Source: Kaiko Research. In terms of the long term, there is something in common for all of them: the impact of the halving was always bullish. It stands out that the price of the currency has experienced increases ranging between 292% and more than 8,000% after these events. The long-term bullish impact is partly due to a technical issue, as the halving is the halving of bitcoin issuance every approximately 4 years. This phenomenon reduces miners' sales, so the price of the currency rises due to lower demand than before. The research company mentions that bitcoin price rose 1-3 months after each previous halving. And he adds that, since then, the upward trend has continued for around 9-12 months. The next halving of the currency, which will be the fourth in history, will occur in just over a week, around April 20, 2024. Therefore, if history repeats itself, bitcoin would be on the rise from May-July 2024 to February-July 2025, regardless of whether there is a sale of the news that temporarily pushes the price back. However, Kaiko Research makes the caveat that a sample size of three halvings is not large enough to be conclusive about what will happen. It all depends on the demand and supply of the moment. In addition, he emphasizes that other bullish events in the industry contributed to the profits. Whatever happens, the company warns that, in the bitcoin futures market, volatility skyrocketed during the last weekend, especially those of operations that expire in the next two weeks. “This suggests that near-term volatility expectations are rising,” he says. In turn, he highlights that the open interest of perpetual futures of bitcoin and the second most capitalized cryptocurrency, ether (ETH), hit all-time highs last month. This, which occurred after BTC registered new price records, reflects a bullish factor for the market. In addition to this, he maintains that bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States continue to register inflows, as they have mostly done since their launch three weeks ago. Therefore, if this continues, this generates upward pressure on the price.
According to analyst, there might not be a sale of the news
According to the analyst known as Rekt Capital, the market has been showing strength for three weeks, with a sustained rise in the price of bitcoin. This has gone from $60,000 to $70,000 (USD), as the next chart shows, indicating that profit-taking could be over.
Bitcoin price per day in the last month. Source: TradingView. With this rise, the currency is now trading 4% below its all-time high (ATH) recorded four weeks ago of USD 73,700 and more than 300% above the bear market bottom set just over a year ago around USD 16,000. The technical analysis of this movement suggests that the sale of the news could have been advanced before the halving and there would not be one after the achievement of this event. Likewise, it reflects the possible beginning of the bitcoin reaccumulation phasesays the analyst.