There are indications that institutional demand is returning to Bitcoin. It will be key that Bitcoin remains above $ 92,200 so as not to lose the upward trend. With Bitcoin (BTC) around $ 95,000, the feeling in the market has changed. Negotiations between the United States and other nations to reach tariff agreements take tranquility to investors who gradually get into assets considered «risk.» Glassnode data, BTC on-chain analysis firm and cryptocurrencies, show that The price rebound exceeded what they call «a crucial threshold.» They refer, specifically, to the «base cost of short -term holders» (STH). This base cost is currently 92,900 US dollars and reflects the average acquisition price of short -term investors who recently acquired BTC. The company clarifies in a recent report that «historically, a rupture sustained above this price model has marked the transition between periods of bearish corrections and a renewed upward feeling during the recoveries.» But … not to get too excited, yet! Glassnode analysts detail that this should be interpreted as «an initial flash of optimism, but a complete regime change towards bullish territory has not yet been confirmed.»
«It is likely that a sustained strength above this level improves market confidence, as more investors return to a significant unrealized gain.» Glassnode, Bitcoin on-chain analysis company and cryptocurrencies.
Glassnode adds that the impulse of the market to the $ 95,000 zone «was accompanied by a notable recovery of the profits not made of investors.» This is observed in the indicator of percentage of offer in profit, which has risen to more than 87%, thus marking a strong rebound from the minimum of March, as can be seen in the image below:
Bitcoin percentage (BTC) in gain over time. Source: Glassnode. To be able to qualify the state of Bitcoin as «euphoria phase», this metric should stabilize above 90% During «a prolonged period, indicating generalized profitability and greater investor confidence,» says Glassnode (although it does not specify what he considers «a prolonged period» will it be a week? 15 days? A month?). Not satisfied with the indicators so far analyzed, Glasnode specialists also use the «benefit/loss of STH supply.» Recently, this metric will be towards its neutral level, that is, about 1.0. Explains Glassnode about it:
«This suggests that the short -term offer is distributed more equitable between currencies in terms of profits and losses, which makes it a balance point in this group.» Glassnode, Bitcoin on-chain analysis company and cryptocurrencies.
According to the company, «this structure is significant, and in previous bearish markets, the aforementioned relationship has remained well below 1, a level that acts as a resistance roof.» Glassnode details that «whenever this metric tested again, from below, it tends to correlate with the formation of a local roof, since investors begin to close positions and stop the impulse.» It would be necessary for the metric to break above 1.0 so that a robust recovery signal can be considered. For this reason, Glassnode advises «monitoring the evolution of this ratio in the coming weeks, especially together with the benefits, to help determine if the market is restoring a more constructive recovery after this correction.»
BENEFIT/LOSS RELATIONSHIP OF THE SHORT TERM HOLDERS OFFER Over time. Source: Glassnode.
Why does Bitcoin not go up at higher prices?
If things are really as optimistic as the data analyzed shows, why is the price of BTC breaking historical maximums? The answer to this is that, Just as there are many investors by entering the market, there are many others taking profits. The Glassnode report confirms this by analyzing the profits made, a sign that qualify as «crucial.» «Currently, total profits with a time resolution have risen to $ 139.9 million per hour, approximately 17% above its base value of 120 million dollars per hour,» says the report. Details Glassnode that this rebound suggests that Many market participants are taking advantage of this price increase to ensure profits. And what would have to happen for the climb to continue? Simple: The market must absorb the selling pressure without collapsing.
«On the contrary,» «says Glassnode,» not to maintain these levels, in a context of making great profits, it could mark this movement as another rebound of dead cat, which would be consistent with previous rebounds of relief that vanished in similar conditions. »
Profit made in Bitcoin (BTC) over time. Source: Glassnode. Glassnode also detects that The «guilty» of this profits They are not old bitcoiners who are leaving the market, but Mainly short -term holders. This group, which we could qualify as «swing traders« is the one that is preventing the price of BTC from rising with force above $ 95,000 and goes to look for the historical maximum area. These short -term holders are not a minor group, since they are even counteracting the impulse of Bitcoin ETFs. Anyway, this situation cannot last forever. When institutional and corporate purchases return strongly (which occur mainly by stock instruments such as ETFs) The BTC price will break up. In conclusion, Glassnode refers to the fact that the rebound shown BTC in recent days is a combination of this change in the feeling of investors and macroeconomic factors. Cryptonoticias has reported that, although the «tariff war» persists, there are truce signs and commercial agreements. In this context, Glasnode analysts mention that «Several metrics point to a constructive recovery in progress for Bitcoin».
«The market is at a turning point, and the key level to consider is the cost base for the short -term holder, which often defines the structure of the upward and bassist market. Alcistas need to boost the market above this price model and keep it there ». Glassnode, Bitcoin on-chain analysis company and cryptocurrencies.