While bitcoin (BTC) has seen a notable rise over the past week, it remains in a sideways phase below the all-time high it touched four months ago. “Some relief in bitcoin’s oversupply coupled with changes in the US political landscape have allowed the crypto asset to recover with the sharp devaluation of the dollar in July,” the institutional arm of the Coinbase exchange indicated. However, visualizes some aspects that hinder higher prices. He detailed that the repayments from the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox to its creditors continue to be a source of pressure. So far in July, this entity has released 50,000 BTC to exchanges, which still leaves it with a balance of 90,300 BTC to be delivered, according to on-chain data from the explorer Arkham Intelligence.
Amount of bitcoin held at Mt. Gox address. Source: Arkham “We may be seeing some profit-taking at current levels and/or an increased willingness by market participants to sell on price appreciation, which may limit upward price movements,” Coinbase noted. In any case, there is no clarity on whether exchange distributions to creditors are instantaneous. For Coinbase, “any sales tied to Mt. Gox repayments are more likely to be gradual and orderly.” In this sense, do not involve a strong downward pressureThe price recovery amid Mt. Gox refunds is seen by some analysts as proof that the price has already bottomed out. “Very good news for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies,” said trader SantinoCripto.
US election year could boost bitcoin
Coinbase also noted that the presidential elections in the United States, scheduled for November, appear to be a major driver for cryptocurrency marketsearlier than they had predicted. Expectations favor a victory for former Republican President Donald Trump, which has favored the rise. “The reason is that some market players believe that this news could represent a significant change in the regulatory landscape given Trump's support for the asset class,” the exchange explained. Even, as part of its defense of the industry, The candidate will give a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference next week in Nashville.
Likewise, his running mate, JD Vance, vice presidential candidate, is a public supporter of cryptocurrencies. In fact, he owns between $100,000 and $250,000 in bitcoin, according to his latest published financial report. Beyond supporting the adoption of cryptoassets, Coinbase analysts, like other specialists, highlight that The economic implications of a Republican administration may favor the market. “Expansionary fiscal policies in a second Trump term accompanied by heavy-handed tariffs would be expected to increase inflation, leading to a steepening of the US Treasury yield curve,” they mention. Consequently, they clarify that such policies can be translated into a weaker dollar, along with the already planned interest rate cuts. “Such a scenario would benefit bitcoin by highlighting its ‘store of value’ narrative,” Coinbase said. Meanwhile, positions have grown in futures Bitcoin and capital inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETF) of the currency. “Institutional investors have been putting in the basis for trading in anticipation of the exhaustion in the excess supply that has been putting pressure on the markets,” the exchange commented.
Open interest in bitcoin futures, a metric that indicates the capital positioned in these instruments. Source: Coinbase. As for altcoin activity, it indicates the platform that remains moderate as expected during the summer month of July in the northern hemisphere, which is usually calmer. “Market participants are waiting for official news about the ether (ETH) spot ETF in the United States,” he concluded. As BitcoinDynamic reported, expectations revolve around the launch of such instruments on July 23, something that could attract new demand for crypto assets.