What will happen to Bitcoin if the story is repeated?

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By TP

With more than 15 years of existence, Bitcoin (BTC) is famous for repeating historical patterns that allow identifying how it could follow its price. Therefore, the on-chain analysis company, Glassnode, reviews it in its most recent report, published on January 29, to anticipate its future behavior. «The previous cycles hint at a possible phase of acceleration in the upward market, which tends to occur around this moment,» warns Glassnode in the report. Historically, Bitcoin Alcistas markets have had an initial stage of moderate growth (early phase), which eventually gives way to a period of rapid price expansion (euphoric phase). The trajectory of the current cycle, started two years ago at the bottom of 2023, suggests that BTC could be in transition to this second phasethe analyst firm details. Glassnode points out that the previous two cycles have experienced a marked acceleration in prices performance at this time, driven by the influx of new attention and demand for the asset. Next, the rise that had the price of Bitcoin can be observed in each cycle of its history, from the end of each crypto winter to the end of each upward market.

Bitcoin price performance in each bullish cycle. Source: Glassnode. According to Glassnode, the current cycle reflects the trends observed in the 2015-2018 cycle, a market motivated mainly by cash trade (spot). However, he warns that the general performance of that period reached a rise of 100 times, which is quite unlikely to be repeated given the great growth of capitalization. «The rate of appreciation of the price of Bitcoin has decreased cycle after cycle, which reflects the maturity of the current market and the increase in capital necessary to grow an assessment of assets of billions to several billion dollars,» he emphasizes. The capitalization of Bitcoin, which indicates the value of all BTC coins in circulation according to the price at which they moved for the last time, has grown 2.1 times in this cycle. As exhibited in the graph, the analyst firm glimpses that this is well below the 5.7-time rise of the previous cycle and aligns with the 2015-2018 cycle at this stage.

While Bitcoin's capitalization rises less in each cycle, it normally experiences an exponential increase in the euphoria phase. This pattern, which can be seen below, «indicates a possible margin for greater market expansion,» says Glassnode.

Capitalization made of Bitcoin per bullish cycle. Source: Glassnode.

The end of the bullish market is approaching, according to historical data

Despite the growth indicators, Glassnode estimates that the peak of the current upward market could be achieved in the short term. It bases this possibility on the rotation of wealth within the Bitcoin ecosystem. «The size and rotation rate of the wealth of the current cycle reflect the upward markets of the late 2017 and early 2021,» he says. This behavior «suggests that there could be a short -term demand exhaustion,» he clarifies. Explains that, in the bullish cycles, Long -term investors usually sell to ensure profits, distributing the supply to new buyers that enter the market paying higher prices. Therefore, after all, «market sustainability depends on the aggressiveness of demand,» he emphasizes. Since the price of Bitcoin first exceeded $ 100,000 (USD) at the end of 2024, 1.1 million BTC of long -term holders have been transferred to short -term investors, evidencing a strong absorption of the offer, such as It is confirmed in the next graph.

Bitcoin supply between long -term investors (blue line) and short term (red line). Source: Glassnode. Normally, after strong profits from long -term investors, it usually gives a break that allows new buyers to continue promoting prices. But, This eventually leads to the exhaustion of the demand that marks the end of the upward cycle And the beginning of a bearish market, where Hodling prevails, says Glassnode. The Hodling strategy refers to maintaining long -term coins, a tactic used in cryptoinviernos to ensure profits in bullish trends. In this sense, investors should be prepared for the possible end of the current upward cycle eventually. Although, for now, there are no signs that this is over, despite the recent price drop. As cryptootics reported, Bitcoin declined to USD 91,000which means a decrease of 16% from its historical maximum of USD 109,300 registered two weeks ago. The setback, which was in correlation with US actions, occurred after President Donald Trump established tariffs for foreign trade.

Bitcoin price per day so far from 2025. Source: TrainingView.

The percentage of such recoil is within the normal margins that Bitcoin has in upward marketsso it does not reflect its end, as the following image shows. In fact, says Glassnode that falls in the current cycle usually range between the Fibonacci levels of 10.1% and 23.6%, which also resemble the 2015-2017 period.

Falls that Bitcoin has had in each bullish cycle. Source: Glassnode. In this cycle, the typical fall has rarely been more than 25%. This «is a reflection of the impressive demand profile that has emerged for Bitcoin in recent years, partly due to the acceptance of this as a macroactive in finance and the role of ETF in cash as a source of new demand,» culminates Glassnode. That is why, despite this fall, Alcista expectations for Bitcoin are still maintained this year.