«He Historical Fiscal Giro of Germany has significantly improved the growth prospects of euro and clearly challenge our previous negative bias on the currency. The strong increase in the yields of the Bund It has greatly strengthened the support of the euro against the US dollar, although to a lesser extent against the Swiss Franco. «Mar 29, 2025 act. At 06:00 it is the market vision of the market of Claudio WewelCurrency Stamker in the Swiss Manager J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable am. «However,» adds this expert, «markets continue to ignore the Risk of political setbacks. Besides, Vladimir Putin He has expressed his reservations on the Ukrainian proposal of a high temporary fire, reducing the hopes of a soon peace agreement. Finally, the tariff risk premium The Euro remains relatively low, which makes it vulnerable to a possible escalation of the commercial war between the United States and the European Union. «Wewel adds that» the 180 degree turn in German fiscal policy calls into question our previous negative bias on the euro. In essence, this stimulus package I could add 1% to the annual growth of German GDP«In addition, it indicates that» the European Rearm program Proposed would create a Additional fiscal margin for member states to increase their defense expenditure, partly through a joint loan program worth 150,000 million euros. Until now, the markets have favorably hosted the possible package of measures, which has significantly promoted trust. «On the other hand, this strategist comments that» the stimulus plans have caused a significant adjustment of ECB types expectationsand the markets foresee more than one type cut until the end of the year. This reevaluation has also promoted a strong rise in the yields of the bund during the last fifteen days. «On the contrary, says Wewel,» US Treasury returns have fallensince the markets have begun to evaluate the risks that President Trump's policies could represent for the growth of the US. «In his opinion,» this has substantially reduced The performance advantage of American treasure bonds against the German Bunds, which explains the recent appreciation of the euro/dollar. «Therefore, now considers that» a EUROPHODS TO THE PARITY With the dollar it is now much less likely»
The risks for this forecast
However, not all are positive factors for the European currency. Wewel believes that «markets continue to dismiss for the moment Risk of political setbacks«, both for Germany's plans and those of the EU. On the other hand, it is still not clear if Russia will final long -term strategic interests of both countries are still diametrically oppositeit will be extremely difficult to reach an agreement, which Limit the short -term euro bundle route«says this expert. Finally, and not least, Wegel recalls that» the close relationship between the euro/dollar and its performance differential suggests that the EURO TARANCEL RISK SHEET has remained relatively low. Until now, tariffs imposed by President Trump have been mainly directed to non -European economies, such as Canada, Mexico and China. «» However, «Wegel concludes,» it is likely «that» If Trump's commercial war intensifies From next week, when you announce your reciprocal tariffs, this can «press to the euro«
