Puig will be one of the protagonists of the next trading day, since the Catalan company will present the results for fiscal year 2025 this Wednesday, February 18. The perfumer arrives at this appointment as one of the most bullish values of the Ibex 35 so far in 2026 thanks to a revaluation of slightly more than 10%. However, analysts are not clear what to think of the Catalan firm. For example, JP Morgan reiterates its recommendation to ‘underweight’ these stocksto which he gives a target price of 15 euros. This advice is due to their negative view of the value, since their forecasts are 5% and 11% below the consensus in terms of earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2025 and 2026, respectively. «As we highlight in our global fragrance note, we remain cautious about slowing trends in its Fragrance and Fashion divisionwith several downside risks derived from comparables in the sector (weakening of the Western European market, greater promotions due to slower demand in the US, weakness in Latin America and slowdown in search trends on Google for Jean Paul Gaultier and Rabanne)», the New York firm explains. JP Morgan expects Puig to report a comparable growth (‘like for like’, LFL) of 6.4% in the fourth quarterdriven by a 20% increase in the Makeup division, thanks to an «easy» comparison with the previous year, and a «solid» 16% increase in the Skin Care business. «We see that Fragrances and Fashion continue to slow down to +1.9% LFL, facing more demanding comparables and a negative impact of the exchange rate,» adds the North American firm. By region, Asia-Pacific should lead growth with a 37.5% increase in comparable sales, followed by EMEA, with an increase of 5.1%, while the Americas would partially offset these increases with a drop in LFL sales of 3.3%. Likewise, JP Morgan expects that the group’s EBITDA margin improves by 20 basis pointsup 20.4%, as well as an adjusted EBITDA of 20.4%, due to the impact of the mix, a strong euro and tariffs on the gross margin, while recognizing that the reduce expenses (including advertising and promotion) to protect margins. «Overall, we expect an adjusted EPS of 1.00 euros»they say. «We set a target price for December 2027 of 15 euros, based on multiples, valuing the stock at 14x PER, with a 10% discount to the European personal and home care sector which is trading at around 16x PER, given the lower LFL and EPS growth compared to its comparables,» says the firm. On the contrary, Renta 4 continues to recommend ‘overweight’ these actions, which he values in 22.1 euros by title, given the expectation that the Catalan company meets the second half profit guide and continues generating cash. «We hope that Puig Brands presents its results complying with the guide offered by the company at the beginning of the yearachieving annual growth in sales in the middle part of the +6/+8% range in comparable terms and achieving an expansion in the adjusted EBITDA margin close to +20 basis points,» they explain. Thus, at the sales level, after a first semester where LFL growth reached +7.6%, R4 expects the second half of the year to reflect the slowdown in the overall beauty marketderived from macro uncertainty and trade protectionism, with special impact on the Fragrances & Fashion business, registering consolidated LFL growth of 6% or 7%. They see more growth in the Makeup and Skin Care businesses, where they expect comparable sales of more than 21% and 9%, respectively. When presenting results, R4 recommends paying attention to several factors. First of all, to expectations about the market for 2026 after the slowdown shown during 2025. Secondly, the ability to continue gaining market share in a context of growth greater than that of the market. He also suggests paying attention to what impact tariffs will have on gross margin and subsequent price increases on volumes, as well as currency effects this year. Finally, they recommend monitoring the evolution of margins in 2026; and inorganic growth expectations, given the strength of the balance sheet. Furthermore, remember that On April 16 and 17, Puig will celebrate its Capital Markets Dayan event in which the board of directors will be able to share and make visible the company’s growth strategy and its capital allocation policy in a context of slowing organic growth in the beauty sector. «We continue to believe that the market undervalues Puig, given that the company continues to break sales recordsgrowing above the premium beauty market and expanding margins even in an adverse environment. All of this, while maintaining a shareholder remuneration policy higher than its comparables (dividend yield of around 3%), a lower debt ratio and a valuation discount compared to the sector average of more than 30%,» these experts conclude.
