Bitcoin (BTC) is about to open the last quarter of 2025 with an expectant market on the course of its price in the coming months. According to the cryptootic price calculator, the creation of Satoshi Nakamoto currently trades at USD 110,279 per unit. In parallel, Polymarket predictions, decentralized betting platform, show that participants are evaluating different scenarios for the value of BTC for the culmination of the year. Although there is an extreme minority (just 1%) that bets that the asset can exceed one million dollars, Most of the volume is concentrated in more conservative levels. For example, 20% of the market allocates probabilities to which Bitcoin closes the year around USD 150,000while 35% see a roof in USD 140,000. In the intermediate zone, with the USD 125,000 threshold, the expectation is even more marked, with more than 60% participation.
11% of the trainers project that Bitcoin will exceed USD 170,000 before the end of the year. Source: Polymarket. On the opposite side, About 14% of participants expect BTC to close the year below their current price. Of that group, 8% bet on a setback towards USD 70,000, 4% projects it around USD 50,000, and 2% even contemplates a collapse to the USD 20,000 area. It should be noted that Bitcoin reached its most recent historical maximum on August 14, 2025, when it exceeded the USD 123,000. These bullish projections are supported, to a large extent, on October for BTC, a month that has historically been favorable. In the last twelve years only twice closed in red, a seasonal pattern that reinforces the narrative that the fourth quarter could open the door to new maximums. The following table, prepared by Coinglass, shows the monthly returns of Bitcoin, month by month, since 2013:
October is a historically upward month for Bitcoin. Source: Coinglass. In addition, as Cryptonotics reported, financial markets are preparing for a new cutting rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), a factor that usually boosts assets considered «risk» as BTC by lowering the cost of money and favoring liquidity entry. Although September closed with strong volatility, several analysts agree that recent correction acted as a cleaning of excesses in the market. With a weakened dollar, positive flows to the bitcoin quoted funds (ETF) and a growing offer of Stablcoins, the scenario maintains a backstream bias. The interest in these predictions does not lie only in speculation. Polymarket has established itself as one of the reference platforms to measure collective expectationsto the point that large international media use it as an opinion thermometer on different issues, from presidential elections to the evolution of financial markets. In fact, the Grayscale research team, a company that broadcasts Cryptocurrencies ETF, considers that Polymarket could be consolidated as an authentic reference to transmit veracity. Thus, the strength of the platform lies in the fact that users have direct economic incentives to succeed: a correct prediction generates profits, while an error implies losses. This makes it a much more reliable «thermometer» than a simple survey.
