He gold remains unstoppable. Although many doubted that it could maintain the pace of increases it recorded in 2025, the truth is that the precious metal has started the year setting one new all-time high after another, and seems to want more. Analysts have not only been forced to recalibrate their projections, but have also begun to speculate about where will you find a roof the price. What would happen if last year’s rally repeated? The experts at RBC Capital Markets are clear that it is something that cannot be ruled out today. It is true that they maintain a projection, in their most bullish scenario, that places the price at $5,203 per ounce in the fourth quarter of the year. But it is also true that they recognize that «The speed of this rally has exceeded our expectations»so they believe that from now on anything can happen. And the precious metal «continues to chain new historical highs.» «The frenetic nature of uncertaintyalong with a weaker dollar, have been the main drivers of this latest bullish leg, which has taken gold to levels that we had not contemplated in our most optimistic scenario until later in the year,» they explain. In fact, at RBC they expected gold to trade «mostly in the range of $4,500-$5,000 per ounce this year», with upside risks concentrated mainly in the second half of the year. «Exceeding $5,000 was possible, and even probable, in our opinion, later in the year,» they say, but everything has been precipitated. That is why now the Canadian bank’s analysts are wondering How far could prices go?and they believe that much further. Above all, they point out, because «many of the main drivers of gold from last year are still present», especially uncertainty. «Between trade, politics, geopolitical instability, concerns about the Fed’s independence, etc…, there are numerous factors to consider» that could continue to drive prices higher, they note. To this we must add that they do not believe that demand from investors or central banks «will decrease»so the rally still has a long way to go. So much so that they could even exceed $7,000. «In 2025, gold prices set an average of 4.9 all-time highs per month, closing the year with an increase of approximately 65%. So far in 2026, gold has already established 8 new all-time highs (well above last year’s average pace), making another year similar to 2025 possible,» these strategists say. They insist that «many of the same fundamentals are still present and, crucially, we see no signs of exhaustion in terms of accumulation from either investors or the official sector (i.e. central banks).» Therefore, further increases in gold can be expected. But how far? Well, as they say, «taking 2025 profits as a reference, repeating a similar movement in percentage terms would place gold around $7,100 per ounce at the end of the year.» And they add: «There are now upside risks even to our most optimistic scenario.»
IS IT FEASIBLE FOR THE RALLY TO CONTINUE?
And given the doubts of those who may think that the rally cannot go further, RBC points out that you only have to take a look at history to know that it can. «Historical rallies can serve as a reference point to estimate the duration of a rally,» they explain. Thus, «using three historical rallies (August 1976-January 1980, January 2007-September 2011 and December 2015-August 2020) as examples, a rally of 1,062 to 1,168 days (average-maximum duration) is not without precedent.» «Given that we are currently approximately 844 days into this bull cycle, the great rallies of the past point to early September or mid-December (essentially, at the end of the year) if only the duration is considered,» these experts add. Which means, they conclude, that «the current duration is not at all atypical» and, given the nature of gold, «this does not constitute a rigid limit for the rally.»
