If true, the reserve could be the definitive catalyst for the supply shock this 2026. Venezuela would rival the BTC reserves of Strategy and BlackRock. Research published by Whale Hunting suggests that the Venezuelan government could have consolidated one of the largest reserves of bitcoin (BTC) and digital currencies in the world. According to the report, Nicolás Maduro’s administration would have systematically converted state income into digital assets, accumulating a figure estimated at USD 60,000 million.
If these data are confirmed, the Venezuelan State would control more than 600,000 bitcoin. A figure that would rival the holdings of institutional giants. Among them, Strategy (673,000 BTC) and the bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) issued by BlackRock (770,000 BTC). He would also compete with Satoshi Nakamoto himself, the creator of Bitcoin (1.1 million BTC). Whale Hunting is a medium specialized in documenting global financial crimes and money laundering networks. Its importance in this investigation lies in its ability to track the money behind some of the world’s most brazen financial crimes and expose the networks of people that enable them, using high-level human intelligence (HUMINT) sources.
The origin of the reserve: from gold to bitcoin
The investigation details that The accumulation of this digital treasure formally began in 2018in a context of international sanctions and economic crisis. According to Whale Hunting journalists, “the Venezuelan government exported 73.2 tons of gold in 2018 alone, approximately $2.7 billion at the time.” The scheme would have consisted of selling this mineral in markets in Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates and then convert the income into digital currency.
The report highlights that temporality was a key factor for the growth of this reserve. «Venezuela began to move gold seriously in 2018, when bitcoin was trading between USD 3,000 and USD 10,000,» they highlighted. “If even a fraction of that amount were converted to Bitcoin when prices ranged between $3,000 and $10,000, and held to the 2021 peak of $69,000, the gains would be staggering,” they noted. The investigative outlet described a “systematic effort to convert gold proceeds into bitcoin through OTC brokers in Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates.” This, subsequently using mixers (mixers) and cold wallets (cold wallets). to keep assets out of the reach of international justice.
Venezuela would enter the top of the largest entities that accumulate bitcoin. Source: Serenity.
Bitcoin from Venezuela confiscated by the US
The magnitude of these holdings sparked debate among market analysts about the impact that the seizure of these assets by US authorities would have. This, taking into account that Nicolás Maduro was detained by the United States on January 3 in a military operation, as reported by BitcoinDynamic. He was taken to New York, where he will be tried for narcoterrorism crimes and weapons possession. It emerged on Monday, January 5, that the president pleaded not guilty to all the charges against him. According to data from analysts from research entities such as Serenity, it is very likely that, as a result of their arrest, the BTC managed by the Maduro administration be seized «and immediately entangled in complex litigation.»
«Creditors will file court orders and the Department of Justice will seek confiscation. In addition, the private keys of the wallets will be in the custody of the US Treasury, but the coins will not be able to move,» they explain. Serinity analysts point out that the seizure of 600,000 BTC would cause volatility in the price of the digital currency in the short term. This due to political uncertainty, which would lead to a bullish narrative resulting from a “supply shock.”
«The market will be aware that 600,000 BTC (3% of the circulating supply) will be effectively removed from the market over 5-10 years. «This will act as a huge ‘lock-in’, reducing the supply of liquidity and supporting higher prices,» he said. Likewise, Serenity believes that the US bitcoin strategic reserve narrative will gain momentum. They consider that US President Donald Trump could order that the more than 600,000 BTC from Venezuela become part of the US treasury. “This also acts as a massive block, reducing the supply of liquidity and sustaining higher prices,” they note.
Uncertainty about access to private keys
Despite the astronomical figures, Whale Hunting warns that full control of these funds depends on those who hold the private keys. With key figures in the scheme in custody or unaccounted for, the question arises as to whether this capital can be recovered or «will vanish into the blockchain, accessible only to those who have the keys,» the researchers say. «The question is no longer whether the regime can survive. It is whether your stolen fortune can be recovered, or whether it will vanish on the blockchain,” the journalists conclude. While the market assimilates the possibility that Venezuela to be a “bitcoin superpower”the shortage of the primary digital asset appears to be reinforced by the prospect of an imminent prolonged blockage of digital currencies that might otherwise have been liquidated.
