Wall Street has climbed this Monday (Dow Jones:+0.75%; S&P500:+0.94%; Nasdaq:+1.52%) As it seems to love Geopolitical tension after Israel's attack to Iransince Tehran has been willing to dialogue to end hostilities. All this without losing sight of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and any novelty related to the Commercial policy by Donald Trump. However, it should be remembered that the American Stock Exchange will remain closed on Thursday by the holiday of the 'Juneteenth' (Day of the end of slavery). «Some analysts argue that the escalation of the conflict could ultimately, stop world growth and limit the bullish oil potential. Others believe that the increase in prices could encourage shale producers to increase production, «says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote Bank's senior analyst. Although the expert claims that» being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic, being realistic The risk of interruptions in the Ormuz Strait -A critical point for a third of the world oil flow- implies that the risks balance remains inclined up. Many experts warn that current tensions between Israel and Iran seem more serious than in recent years, and that a broader conflict could raise oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel. «In this sense, from Link Securities notice that Greater risk that entails the confrontation between these countries is that ends up involving other nations in the regionfor example, to the Arab countries, historical enemies of Iran, or the US himself. «If this happens, it is feasible that they will try to close the passage through the Ormuz Straitnarrow through which about 30% of world oil production travels daily. This could cause a strong increase in oil prices, which would seriously threaten global economic growth, already weakened by the US commercial political, promoting upward inflationwhich, in turn, would limit the capacity of the central banks to 'go to the rescue'. This scenario would be very negative for world financial marketswith few assets, including oil and gold, being able to act as a refuge for investors, «they add. However, and If the conflict stabilizes And it does not extend to new 'players', they are possible that investors, as has happened on other occasions, end up obviating it and focusing their attention on the fundamentalsboth in macroeconomic and business.
The Fed, protagonist of the week
As for the Macro agenda, the main protagonist of the week will be the Fed. The Central Bank will announce its Wednesday its Decision on interest ratesfor which market discounts, with a 96.7% probability according to the CME Group Fedwatch tool, which Keep rates without changes Despite Trump's pressures to undertake a cut. «At the moment employment data, although they contain less encouraging aspects, They do not constitute the 'conclusive evidence' that leads Fed to abandon his waiting attitude«, says Gilles Moëc, chief economist of Axa IM.» The officials are likely They remain cautious given commercial uncertainties and wish to observe how possible tariffs affect inflation. The solid labor market data is given maneuver, «adds Ozkardeskaya. But beyond the Fed, investors will know other references such as Retail sales May (Tuesday) or Weekly unemployment data (Wednesday).
Other markets
In other markets, oil West Texas has dropped 2.32% ($ 71.30) and Brent has yielded 1.86% ($ 72.85). For its part, the euro 0.05% ($ 1,1559), and the ounce of gold has lost 1.40% ($ 3404). In addition, the 10 -year American Bonus Profitability It has revalued 4,454% and the Bitcoin has added 3.10% ($ 108,614).