Wall Street has closed with purchases (Dow Jones:+0.18%; S&P500:+0.41%; Nasdaq:+0.31%) This Tuesday with the focus on the possible Partial closure of the United States Government If the Congress does not approve a new federal budget before the October 1. The Dow Jones has registered a new closing maximum. And all this, in the climax of a positive September month For the US variable income, in which the Nasdaq has advanced 5.61%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones They have risen 3.53% and 1.87%, respectively. The indices have also fired a bullish quarter, led by Nasdaq (+11.25%) and followed by the S&P 500 (+7.79%) and Dow Jones (+5.22%). «A closure for tomorrow is a real possibilityalthough it would not be the first or the last time that the US government closes due to financing problems. A brief closure would not have a significant impact on growth expectations or appetite for the risk of the US, «says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote Bank’s senior analyst. Traditionally, markets have tended to ignore closures, although this time The publication of the Official Employment Report of September is in dangerscheduled for this Friday, October 3. In fact, the Office of Labor Statistics has already warned that, if there is a government closure, «it will suspend all operations» and, therefore, «the economic data that is scheduled to be published during the period will not be published.» In addition to not publishing the reports, the Labor Department has also indicated that «all active data collection activities will cease for BLS surveys», indicating that Other references could be delayed if the closure is prolonged. This, at a time when Uncertainty about the state of the economy is already highconcerns about the quality of government data and Federal Reserve (Fed) You want to base your next decision on interest rates (scheduled for October 29) mainly on that data. So «the delays in the publication would probably generate Volatility in financial markets«.» What most worries investors is the risk that US data is not published, or delayed, since most government agencies would be closed in case of a closure. The lack of data would cloud the perspectives of the Fed. And since the weakening of the perspectives of the Fed and the growing expectations of type cuts have been an important support to the recent rebound of US actions, LA absence of data could encourage some investors to collect benefits«Adds Ozkardeskaya.» Since 2013 there have been four federal government closures and several more closing threats. They usually last a short time and the impact on the march of markets is not usually significant. The biggest problem on this occasion is that investors are waiting with some anxiety for the publication Friday by the Department of Labor of the Employment Report Not agricultural of September since, if the Fed continues to lower its official rates it will be a consequence of the weakness of the labor market, «they say on Link Securities. If the closure lasts a few weeks, which is possible, the growth expectations would begin to deteriorate.» But said deterioration would drive the Fed to cut their bets. And that ‘magical mechanism’ of moderate expectations of Fed would probably stop any possible market drop. In the medium term, I would not worry too much a closure«Ozkardeskaya points out.
Outstanding references
However, the agenda on Tuesday has included the August Jolts Surveythat quantifies the volume of jobs offered and has risen more than expected. In the same way, the September consumer trustwhich has fallen to its lowest level of the last five months.
Companies and other markets
On the business level, Nike It will present its quarterly results. «We will have to be very attentive to what the company says about the impact that the new tariffs are already having in their prices and, therefore, in the demand of their products, as well as in their margins,» they value in Link Securities. Besides, Coreweave’s shares have shot 11.70% After signing an agreement with a goal for cloud infrastructure and supply of computer power valued at 14,000 million dollars. In other markets, oil West Texas has dropped 1.39% ($ 62.57) and Brent has yielded 1.34% ($ 67.06). For its part, the euro 0.10% ($ 1,1738) has been appreciated, and ounce of gold has added 0.71% ($ 3,882). In addition, the 10 -year American Bonus Profitability It has relaxed 4,148% and the Bitcoin has won 0.02% ($ 114,224).
