We face an exercise with the world scrambled and loaded with uncertainties, but also with the feeling of having faced some uncertainties that are not so different. Given this kind of Flash, we have the privilege of the memory and the prerogative of time, which allow us Swann's path when he was preparing to engulf a muzzle recently bathed in tea. A lot of memories were triggered that moved their mind to the past. We are not facing Trump's first mandate, nor is it the first time that authoritarianism prevails in the White House. Nor are global resistance to lower public deficits, doubts about the longevity of the economic cycle or the increasingly exaggerated appropriation of the global added value by the 10 largest North American companies, which already suppose 27% of the capitalization World Cup. The reminiscence of the most important past is that more than 18 months have elapsed since North American interest rates reached their maximum level in a quarter of a century, and the cycle resists thanks to the strength of employment and the resilience of consumption. A period long enough to confirm that types of types do not always end with economic cycles – there has been an average decalage of 10 months between the point of maximum monetary restriction and recessions. The US economy will grow this quarter 3%, stretching a five -year cycle that is still two years younger than the average. The other Magdalena that we begin to savor is the Trump 2.0., Which will most likely differ much from its first mandate. After a week of extravagant statements and executive orders, it should be remembered that he did not meet many of the promises of his first mandate. His policy was marked by commercial negotiations (renegotiated the gasoline) based on tariff harassment; The reduction of 11% of illegal immigration and tax cuts. It now inherits an economy that offers a much smaller margin: a 7% public deficit compared to 2.9% at that time and the public debt is around 123% of GDP compared to 105% in 2016. In addition, although Elon's emergence Musk in command of the government efficiency department generates high expectations, magic does not exist: the real capacity of action on public spending without the approval of 60% of the Senate is limited to 2.4% of GDP, not to say that Trump , in its first term, it increased public employment by 3.4%. In addition, in tariff matters, surely now it will be more restrained by directing rates to specific countries and sectors. Without doubt, many reminiscences of the past that make us think that, in the end, the water will not reach the river and that it remains magic and cycle for a while for a while .Joan Bonet Majó, Director of Market Strategy of Banca March.
