He dollar He does not go through his best moment, much less. The 'Green Ticket', considered one of the asset shelters par excellence, is not acting as such despite the turbulence facing the market. On the contrary, it has depreciated Faced with most of their peers and the situation, experts warn, I could even be worse.
«It is hard for us to find optimistic investors about the US currency»says Yves Bonzon, Cio de Julius Baer, in a recent comment, in which he shows sharp about the dollar by stating that the feeling of the market with the currency is getting worse. Now, he explains, the idea that predominates is that the US dollar «is condemned to failure«. This Swiss bank expert also says that» the evidence is quite negative, «and points out that» the US dollar no longer helps investors who do not use the US dollar. «That is why See «very likely» that a short -term rebound occurs, but the key question is «from what level». That is, he believes that the American currency will continue to depreciate in the coming weeks. And the fault is from the duty. «The dollar is stagnant and the change tables prepare for another tariff roulette round,» says Stephen Innes, director of Spi Asset Management. As explained, the Employment reportthat came better than expected, «it should have been a victory for the dollar», but «someone forgot to give the starting gun.» Employment creation was better than expected, and that led to an increase of 10-12 basic points in the yields of the short-term treasure bonds, but «the dollar did not move.» Normally, says Innes, «that type of revaluation would be a tail wind for the dollar. But not this time. The problem is not the data. They are the terrestrial mines that are coming«, he says. He says in reference to the end of the Tariff truce granted by US president Donald Trump, who expires the July 9. «The exchange market is prepared for what comes from Washington,» says Spi Asset Management analyst, especially after the Republican has announced the sending of a dozen letters to its commercial partners «detailing its new rates,» They will go from 10% to 70%. «This is not a lantern, it is part of the next stage of the Economic Doctrine of the White House,» says Innes, and that is something that the currency options is understanding. So much that the prices of the EUR/USD «are kept elevated over the next three weeks, an implicit warning of Something could detonate soon«, says this expert. In his opinion, what operators are discounting is the political risk, not the flexibility of policies.» And that keeps the stagnant dollar In spite of what should have been a recovery scenario, «he adds. Now, he concludes, it is no longer the economic impulse, but» who will be more affected when tariffs are applied. »
More dollar sales
Derek Halpenny, a MUFG analyst, says that «the greatest unknown» right now is the result of Trump's tariff plans, which should be clarified in the next few days, before July 9. «The retreat of the dollar has occurred by Trump's comments» about the letters informing the level of tariffs that will face various countries, which has placed in a range between 10%-20%and 60%-70%. «The markets were waiting for much lower ranges,» says this expert, which indicates that if the comments of the US president end up confirming, «investors will reduce growth expectations and to raise inflation, which only only will encourage more dollar sales«. In any case, investors do not expect higher tariff Washington in his tariff war This could be an agitated period for currency marketssince the White House again launches strong threats to close trade agreements, «he adds. Turner also remembers that the G10 currencies with the best performance during the worst moment of the volatility of April were the Swiss Franco, the euro and the Yen, in that order. «The dollar was widely sold»says the analyst, who believes that what happened this Thursday with the currencies «suggests that investors and companies were more than willing to sell dollars.» History is repeated and The great victim will be the 'green ticket' again. Everything points, concludes in ING expert, to «the dollar will remain weak.»
