The Ibex and the rest of the European stock markets face a new day of declines this Thursday after the generally moderate falls recorded in the previous session. In the case of the Spanish selective, the decline was barely half a percentage point. However, futures point to a more negative tone today, with the Euro Stoxx anticipating cuts close to 0.9% in a context marked by the new rise in oil. He barrel of Brent climbs back to $100 despite the announcement of the greater coordinated release of strategic crude oil reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The market fears that the measure will result difficult to implementgiven the scarcity of details about its execution and the current complex geopolitical context. Furthermore, the volume of the release itself—400 million barrels—is being interpreted by investors as a sign of the seriousness of the situation in the energy marketwhich, far from reassuring, is contributing to increasing tension in the markets. Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, emphasizes that the key question for the market is no longer how many barrels there are, but if those barrels can really reach their destination. In his opinion, oil markets do not only value the volume of available supply, but the certainty that this supply can be delivered. When that security is called into question, he explains, Each shipment begins to incorporate a kind of «geopolitical premium» in the price. The expert highlights that recent attacks and alterations in energy infrastructure in the Middle East have reinforced that perception of risk. Incidents with oil tankers, attacks on fuel storage facilities or the evacuation of ships in certain ports have altered the logistical map of crude oil exports in the region, to the point that the market is beginning to see it more as a military risk scenario than as a normal energy transportation network.
Innes adds that, although the announced volume of reserves is high, operators clearly differentiate between emergency barrels and barrels whose supply is stable. In a context in which the security of maritime routes is in question, strategic reserves are perceived more as a temporary relief rather than a structural solution to the supply problem.
In this context, a barrel of Brent is around $98.56, with an increase of 7.15%, while West Texas Intermediate is trading close to $93.05, with an increase of 6.65%. For his part, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, warns that the very size of the release of reserves is generating new concerns in the market. «The sheer size of the liberation has raised concerns that the war could drag on.. In simple terms, 400 million barrels would only be enough to cover global demand for approximately nine or ten days. «The expert agrees with the diagnosis of many analysts regarding the main factor that could stabilize the market.»Only the resumption of normal trade through the Strait of Hormuz would really help stabilize the market, and right now that scenario doesn’t seem to be on the table.»
WALL STREET ALSO ANTICIPATE FALLS
Wall Street futures too They anticipate decreases this Thursday of 0.8%. In the previous session, US stock markets closed with a mixed sign and with steeper falls in the Dow Jones, which fell 0.6%. He February CPI was in line with expectationsbut the market’s focus remains on the evolution of the conflict with Iran and the impact that the oil rebound could have on inflation. Some analysts warn that the rise in energy prices could push price growth up to 3% in the coming months. In Asia, stock markets have also recorded declines this morning in a context marked by the rise in crude oil. The Japanese Nikkei lost around 1.45%. Few references stand out on the macroeconomic agenda of the day. The United States will publish the trade balance for January. On a business level, investors will be watching the results of companies such as Zalando, BMW or Adobe.
OTHER MARKETS
The euro is changing at 1.1548 dollars (-0.15%) while the dollar continues to consolidate itself as a safe haven asset throughout this crisis. Gold is down 0.28% ($5,164) and silver is flat ($85.61). The yield on the 10-year American bond rises to 4.23%. Bitcoin is trading at $69,464 and Ethereum is trading at $2,029.
