The pre-opening points to a bearish session in the European stock markets. The Old Continent futures fall around 0.5% after yesterday the markets closed on this side of the Atlantic with moderate gains and the Ibex ended with a very slight rise of 0.18%. In the United States, Nvidia boosted the rebound of the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite in the last session. The company advanced 1.65% after announcing, at the start of its GTC conference, that expects orders worth at least $1 trillion through 2027 for its new Blackwell and Vera Rubin artificial intelligence chips. According to its CEO, Jensen Huang, the company hopes to benefit from a massive demand for computing power linked to artificial intelligence (AI). Even so, the value continues to move within a range since the end of last year, reflecting that investors maintain confidence in the structural growth of the sector, but with greater caution about the pace of investment by large technology companies. However, the tone cools again this morning. The US futures fall nearly half a percentage pointwhile In Asia the day has been mixed.
THE RBA RAISES RATES AND BECOME THE «CANARY IN THE MINE»
One of the focuses of the session is in Australia, where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to raise rates by 25 basis points, to 4.10%for cope with the rise in inflationary pressures in a context marked by rising energy prices. For Stephen Innes, of SPI Asset Management, the Australian decision may be an early sign of what could happen in other developed economies. In his opinion, «the RBA is the canary in the coal minenot because Australia is a unique case, but because it is simply the first to respond to a dynamic that other G7 central banks could soon be forced to confront«, since it has been one of the first central banks to react to the new inflationary impulse caused by oil and a still strong labor market. The expert adds that raising rates in this environment «is not only a monetary policy movement, but a sign of where the risk is now: inflation is not falling fast enough and expectations are beginning to rise», which could force other central banks to act if the energy shock persists. Also on the macroeconomic level, today highlights the publication of the ZEW German investment confidence index for Marchwhich will serve to measure the pulse of economic expectations in the largest economy in the eurozone. The markets are also attentive to the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meetingwhich starts today and whose conclusions will be known tomorrow.
OIL CONTINUES SHOOTING
The main concern of investors continues to be oil. After a brief respite in the previous session, Crude oil is rising sharply again, driven by tension in the Middle East.
A barrel of Brent rose 3.48%, to $103.70, while WTI rose 3.97%, to $97.21. According to Ozkardeskaya, yesterday’s drop below $100 was due to the possibility that some oil tankers could pass through the Strait of Hormuz and to information that Washington was allowing Iran to export crude oil to relieve pressure on prices. However, he warns that the situation remains extremely fragile. «Tensions continue to keep oil bulls wide awake. Brent crude oil is back above the psychological level of $100 and the geopolitical outlook remains fragile, making prices more likely to rise rather than fall on a sustained basis,» he notes. The analyst also emphasizes that the international context remains full of uncertainty. «Global uncertainty persists, opinions diverge and oil infrastructure is being targeted in the Middle East. All of this does not exactly set the stage for euphoria in the markets,» he says.
THE IBEX MAINTAINS DOUBTS
From a technical point of view, the Ibex 35 continues to show weakness after the volatility of recent sessions. According to César Nuez, an analyst at BitcoinDynamic, the Spanish selective maintains a short-term corrective bias. «At the moment we do not see any sign of strength in its price series,» he points out. The expert considers it likely that the index could extend the falls towards the March lows at 16,500 pointswhile losing that level would open the door to additional declines to the 16,000 points, where the average of 200 sessions is found.
For the technical scenario to improve, the Ibex should overcome the resistance of 17,720 points, the maximum recorded at the beginning of this month. As long as this is not achieved, Nuez concludes, uncertainty will continue to dominate the behavior of the selective.
OTHER MARKETS
The euro is exchanged at 1.148 dollars (-0.19%). Gold rises 0.25% ($5,014) and silver advances 0.26% ($80.89). The yield on the 10-year American bond rises to 4.245%. Bitcoin is trading at $74,162 and Ethereum is trading at $2,320.
