Europe is preparing to close for a week clearly conditioned by the evolution of the war in the Middle East and his direct impact on oilin an environment in which it has been crystal clear that, when crude oil falls, stock markets rebound, and when tension escalates and oil soars, equities suffer. European futures (Euro Stoxx) point to increases of around 0.67% this Friday after yesterday’s sharp falls on this side of the Atlantic, while the Wall Street futures trade flat and mixed after a session in which the US indices They managed to moderate the cuts to around 0.3% thanks to the relaxation of crude oil in the afternoon, after the Brent barrel It will be around 120 dollars in the morning.
THE WAR INCREASES
The week has shown that the parties involved in the Iran war They are ready for anything, including attacks on key energy infrastructureswhich has significantly raised concerns about global crude oil supply. Iran attacked on Thursday the largest gas plant in the world in Qatarcausing damage that will affect the energy supply for years. According to QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi, these attacks have eliminated 17% of the country’s liquefied natural gas export capacity for a period of between three and five years. Cross attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East have skyrocketed energy prices, in a context aggravated by the stoppage in the Strait of Hormuz, key for global crude oil transportation. Looking ahead to today, and in what has to do with the war, the focus is also on the Government of Spain, which plans to announce extraordinary measures in response to the impact of the conflict with Iran.
CENTRAL BANKS: ALERT FOR INFLATION
At the macro level, central banks have complied with the planned script and, for the most part, have chosen to keep interest rates unchanged – with the exception of Australia, which did raise them – and all have focused on the inflationary risk derived from rising energy prices due to tension in the Middle East. The common message has been clear: the door is still open to act if inflation picks up. In the case of the European Central Bank (ECB), The market is already beginning to discount a possible rate increase this year. The week closes with the decision of the People’s Bank of Chinawhich has maintained reference rates unchanged for the tenth consecutive monthwith the one-year preferential rate at 3% and the five-year rate at 3.5%.
THE IBEX, IN A DELICATE SITUATION
The Ibex starts today, Friday, from 16,905 points after dropping 2.27% yesterday. From the technical point of view, the selective Its appearance has worsened after piercing the short-term support located at 16,870 points and leave a new bearish gap, reflecting the current strength of sales. Throughout the week, the selective accumulates falls close to 0.9%in line with the pressure exerted by the oil rebound and geopolitical escalation. For the next sessions, the most probable scenario is an extension of the falls towards the 16,497 pointsaccording to BitcoinDynamic experts. If it cannot hold on to that level, the selective could head towards the 16,000 points, where the average of 200 sessions is founda key level whose loss would confirm a trend change. Above, no signs of strength will be seen as long as the index continues to trade below the resistance of the 17,720 points.
INDRA, IN THE SHOOTING
On a business level, Indra has been a clear protagonist this week due to speculation surrounding its president, Scribe Angel. Yesterday Thursday plummeted 12.28% after Escribano Mechanical and Engineering (EM&E) gave up its possible merger with the company. The decision comes after pressure from SEPI, Indra’s main shareholder with 28% of the capital, which had shown its concern about the conflict of interest derived from Ángel Escribano’s dual role as president of the listed company and owner of EM&E.
The conflict could have ended with this decision, but it doesn’t seem like it. According to ‘El Confidencial’ published this Friday, The Government has summoned Ángel Escribano to Moncloa after the manager has managed to avoid the attempt to force his departure by renouncing the merger. The Executive would seek to analyze the new open scenario, in a context in which Escribano would have gained time and strengthened its position while awaiting a possible second assault.
OTHER MARKETS
The euro is exchanged at 1.1561 dollars (-0.23%). Brent oil now falls 1.10% ($107.41) and West Texas drops 1.5% ($94.71). Gold advances 1.6% after the latest falls ($4,680) and silver rebounds 1.58% ($72.34). The yield of the 10-year American bond moderates to 4.281%. Bitcoin is trading at $70,471 and Ethereum is trading at $2,137.
