He IBEX 35 closes with strong falls (-1.16%, 10,649) after the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB)weighed down by the negative behavior of banks, which fell sharply due to the forecast of a first cut in interest rates in the month of June. On the contrary, the renewable energy companiesthose who benefit from lower interest rates, are the most bullish values, with Acciona Energía and Solaria at the head of the selective. This, after yesterday the indices on this side of the Atlantic ended unevenly (the Ibex fell 0.38%) and that on Wall Street cuts were imposed after the disappointing CPI data for March in the USwhich came out above expectations and reinforces the doubts that exist in the market regarding rate cuts for this year.
Bret Kenwell, investment analyst in the US for eToro, assures that the data released this Wednesday puts the US central bank «in a difficult situation after having recently reiterated its forecast of three rate cuts this year.» Pablo Duarte, senior analyst at the Flossbach von Storch Research Institute, assures that «the rebound in the CPI in the US erases a Fed rate cut in June from the map and is a dilemma for the ECB«. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the United States has risen in March to 3.5% in interannual rate compared to the 3.2% registered in February. For its part, underlying inflation, which excludes food and energy, has remained unchanged at 3.8%. Both magnitudes have been above expectations, since the general index had been expected to rebound to 3.4%, and the underlying rate to fall to 3.7%. In monthly terms, The general CPI increased by 0.4%, one tenth above what was expected.
After the CPI, and with the European stock markets already closed, yesterday the minutes of the last Fed meeting were known, which certainly They are somewhat 'out of date' after this last piece of information and which reflect that «Almost all» members of the US central bank expect cuts this year.
US President Joe Biden spoke after learning of the CPI and said that still expects rate cuts for this year, although he acknowledged that they may be delayed. “This may delay (interest rate cuts) a month or so. We don't know what the Federal Reserve is going to do,” Biden said during a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
THE ECB IS THE BIG APPOINTMENT OF THE DAY
The big event this Thursday is meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) which, as expected, has kept interest rates unchanged in the euro zonefor the fifth consecutive meeting, although, for the first time since it began to raise them in the current monetary tightening cycle, has opened the door to a future cut if the data raises their confidence that inflation will drop to 2% on a sustainable basis. The main novelty of the statement was the following: «If the Governing Council's updated assessment of the inflation outlookthe underlying inflation dynamics and the intensity of the transmission of monetary policy further strengthen your confidence in which inflation is converging towards the objective (2%) in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction«. Otherwise, this Thursday's agenda included China's March CPI, which decreased to 0.1% from 0.7% in February. Economists polled by 'Reuters' expected the consumer price index to rise 0.4% in March. So, new deflationary reading. On the other hand, the producer price index registered a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations. In Japan, the strength of the dollar stands out, has left the yen at levels not seen for 54 years (153 yen per dollar).
THE IBEX ATTACKS THE FIRST LEVEL OF SUPPORT
The Ibex closed yesterday again in the red and ended below Tuesday's lows. Today the declines have gotten worse with each passing minute.
«The Spanish selective has covered the bullish gap left on March 21 at 10,752 points. In the short term it could continue to lose positions calmly to the level of 10,388 pointsminimums of the bullish gap that was left on March 13,» say the technical analysts at BitcoinDynamic. «Short-term correction remains intact and it will continue like this as long as it does not cancel the bearish gap that was left last Friday at 11,090 points.» Within the selective, in addition to the values already mentioned, the increases in Meliá or Enagás and the falls in Grifols, IAG, banks and Repsol. European airlines are penalized for Lufthansa's decision to suspend its flights to Tehran. In the Continuous Market, Berkeley has continued to rise strongly after moving forward with enthusiasm yesterday after announcing the start of international arbitration against the Government of Spain due to his opposition to his uranium mine project in Salamanca.
OTHER MARKETS
The euro is exchanged at 1.0716 dollars (-0.24%). Oil declines, with Brent around $90 and West Texas at $85.52. Gold advances +0.47% ($2,359) and silver falls slightly ($28.01). Bitcoin is trading at $69,890 and Ethereum is trading at $3,500. The yield on the 10-year American bond rises to 4.568%.