The main protagonist in the Spanish Stock Exchange this week has been none other than Solaria. The renewable energy company has risen with great force after publishing Some results that the quoted defines as «historical» and that have been received as such by the market. Specifically, Solaria comes from announcing a benefit of 82 million euros between January and June, 97% more that in the first half of 2024, while revenues and billing increased 59% and 66%, respectively. The Spanish firm too He reiterated his goal of achieving an Ebitda of 255 million at the end of the year and confirmed that it continues to repurchase up to 10% of its capital. «Our results show that SOlaria is stronger today than ever: We grow for benefit, in Ebitda and installed capacity. And at the same time we reinforce our commitment to shareholders through the repurchase program, convinced that the market will recognize the true value of our company, «said Arturo Díaz-Tejero, CEO of the Spanish company.
Bofa improves ‘purchase’
One of the firms that this potential has recognized is Bank of America (Bofa). In one of its latest reports, the US entity improves its advice on Solaria to ‘buy’, while maintaining its objective price in the 15 euros. This assessment draws a bullish potential of around 20% for the Spanish quoted. Bafa considers that the Solaria rally will be maintained, since The risk-reompensses ratio is much more attractive after the 27% correction experienced at the end of summer. They also expect the company to clarify in its next capital Markets Day, which will be held on November 17 in London, its infrastructure portfolio, as well as what Stoneshield can contribute as an industrial partner. Solaria, these experts explain, has indicated for some time that aims to go from being a developer and operator of solar parks to a «Data centers facilitator». In fact, the quoted expects that energy, network and real estate assets generate exceptional income related to the opportunity represented by data centers in Spain and the rest of Europe. «I expected 1 billion euros of infrastructure cash between 2024-28, of which more than 650 million would only provide data centers,» Bofa details. «While management mentioned good sales visibility by 2024 and 2025, The agreements have not been completed so far (Including a 40 MW canceled agreement and up to 200 MW with DataSection), which means that management would no longer meet the 60 million euros of expected cash generation of data centers in 2024 and, without agreements announced so far in 2025, also runs the risk of losing the 50 million expected in 2025, «these analysts add. However, they believe that the delay of the CMD to November 17 suggests that the company is working Arduously to finish agreements before the event, since these are «critical» to generate confidence in the strategy based on data centers. Stoneshield As an industrial partner, the growth of the data centers is more likely. Stoneshield has XDC properties with 1 GW of data centers energy in Spain and Italy, and in February 2025 launched the Altamira project, a data center of 3.6 billion euros and 500 MW near Santander. «It is not clear if Stoneshield will take advantage of the existing solar assets or under construction of Solaria (with new projects in northern Spain in 2025 and 2026) to connect its data center or launch new projects in Spain or other places (Solaria also has ambitions to expand to Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom in Solar, storage and data centers). However, Solaria appointed Felipe Malenes, co -founder Stoneshield, as owner director on his council, reinforcing the impression that Investment is not only financial, but also industrial«, argues the American firm.
Opportunity in Data Centers
Data centers demand large amounts of energy and renewables can be associated with them to monetize these connections. But still There are no clear transactions or standardized reference prices In this sector in Spain, which makes it difficult to assess how much that opportunity for Solaria is worth. For example, in September 2024, Solaria signed an agreement to sell facilities and land prepared for an initial 40 MW data center (expandable up to 200 MW). The price was between 50 and 60 million euros, which implied a value of 1,25-1.5 million euros/MW, but «it cannot be directly extrapolated to network connections (in addition to the fact that there was no clear revelation of the accounting value of the assets of the operation and, therefore, of the net potential for revaluation of the heritage)». Another way of seeing it is through Iberdrolawhich also revealed in September 2024 its intention to associate with an industrial provider of data centers. «Its plan contemplated an EBITDA of 150-250 million euros for a completely operational data center of 200 MW, of which Iberdrola would have 20 % in exchange for a land connection. Assuming the multiples of 20x+ EV/EBITDA to those that quote the global data centers and the capex of more than 2,000 million euros required to build the data center, we estimate a data center Patrimonial of 1.5 million euros/MW or more for Iberdrola, «says Bofa. As there are not many closed transactions, Bofa takes as Base case 1 million euros/MW to value Solararia. Similarly, they apply a 50% discount due to the «high risks of execution», but retain 50%, since they believe that the market «is already willing to assess part of this potential.» «Our base case implies a patrimonial revaluation potential of 600 million euros from data centers,» they say. With all this present, Bank of America estimates that solaria more than 55% to 2027 and more than 30% to 2030 will grow«even without including surplus value.» This growth is much higher than the market consensus, but analysts warn: this growth will only be recognized in the stock market if the company really delivers the projects. In particular, the new assets connected in the second quarter of 2025 and the 400 MW of assets already built to connect in the second semester of 2025 will be key.
Technical analysis
By coach, César Nuez, BitcoinDynamic analyst, believes that the company has seen the light at the end of the tunnel and considers that, after drilling the resistance of 11.8 euros, it will be again at annual maximums. «We do not rule out that, in your escalation, a healthy respite is taken, since the climbs are being very vertical and is a value that historically experiences significant volatility,» he says.