Key facts: Important data affecting the US economy will be released today and Wednesday. With a slight bullish momentum, bitcoin could set new all-time high prices. When will bitcoin (BTC) mark a new all-time high in its price? Although the digital currency has had bullish behavior in the last week, it still continues lateralizing below $74,700, which was the price record reached in March. The following graph, provided by TradingView, shows the price of bitcoin, day by day, since it reached that all-time high to date. There the lateral guideline that BTC has drawn is evident.
Bitcoin price with candles in 1 day time frame. Source: TradingView. But the situation could be about to change. The thing is both today, Friday, June 7, and next Wednesday, June 12will be important days that could define the direction that bitcoin finally takes, whether upward or downward.
Today there will be employment data in the United States
During the morning of Today employment data in the United States will be known. According to the specialized portal, Investopedia, «forecasters expect a jobs report on Friday to show that employers added 190,000 jobs to the economy in May, a healthy figure by historical standards, but a slowdown in the subsequent job boom. to the pandemic.
Data could show that 190,000 jobs were added to the US economy in May, according to forecasters – Source: Investopedia. The aforementioned source adds that the expected unemployment rate is 3.9%, close to its lowest level in 50 years, «which shows that while the labor market is slowing, companies are avoiding mass layoffs.»
And what does this have to do with bitcoin? A resilient market in line with expectations could cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain the interest rate without reductions for longer, in order to combat inflation. On the other hand, if the data were not as expected, it could be predicted that there will be, in the short term, a reduction in the interest rate.
When interest rates fall, investors tend to shift their capital out of Treasury bonds and into riskier assets., but that can give them greater returns. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies stand out there.
The FOMC meeting is coming
The second key day to watch for the price of bitcoin in the short term is, as mentioned above, Wednesday, June 12. On that date, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will have one of its usual meetings. This is a key event in the US economic calendar, where decisions are made about the country's monetary policy, particularly interest rates. The FOMC is a component of the Federal Reserve System (the Fed), which is the central bank of the United States. It decides on the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other in the short term. This rate influences other interest rates in the economy, including lending rates and savings rates for consumers and businesses. After several interest rate increases between March 2022 and July 2023, the Fed is keeping its reference rate stable. Next week, This body will decide whether to keep the federal funds rate where it is or begin to lower it. The following graph, provided by TradingView, allows you to see how the evolution of the interest rate in the United States month by month.
Evolution of the interest rate in the United States. Source: TradingView. In general, The expectation is that a cut in interest rates will be announced which could begin to be implemented, perhaps, as early as July. This is explained by Steve Englander, Director of Global Research at the G10 FX company:
«Futures markets are pricing in about 3 basis points of cuts at the July 31 FOMC meeting. We think this is too low. In fact, a cut in July is our baseline,” said Steve Englander, Director of Global G10 FX Research and North American Macro Strategy, in a recent note. Steve Englander, director of G10 FX.
However, the employment data in the United States that are known today or the data of the consumer price index (CPI) which will be known on Wednesday, could cause the Fed to decide to keep the interest rate unchanged for more months. Therefore, it will be key to pay attention to events. He market analyst and communicator, Juan Rodríguezwho dedicates his most recent video to analyzing the behavior of bitcoin in relation to employment data in the United States and the FOMC meeting, says:
«All of that will tell us how fast bitcoin can continue to rise during June or if perhaps it returns to the 66,000 area and why not? the 60,000 dollars. Juan Rodríguez, market analyst.
What will happen to the price of bitcoin in June?
Rodríguez, although he does not rule out that bitcoin could react downwards, maintains a bullish expectation for bitcoin in the current month. According to him, the first part of the month will be more bullish than the second. But all that will depend on the macroeconomic factors referred to here. On the other hand, Rodríguez warns that the next quarter, which begins in July, will be complicated for risk assets. In the third quarter of the year «there is usually a drop in the amount of volume that the markets move and that can obviously harm the indices, and bitcoin is not spared,» he explains. Anyway, does not rule out that bitcoin manages to distance itself from traditional assets. BitcoinDynamic reported yesterday, June 5, that The price of bitcoin has a high probability of having a bull run in June. Or, at least, that is the expectation of traders. This is shown by data from the derivatives exchange, Deribit. On that platform, most of the bitcoin purchase options that expire on June 28 are for prices between $75,000 and $85,000. If this were to happen, bitcoin would be setting new all-time highs in the coming days or weeks.
The bitcoin purchase options are shown in green and the sell options are shown in blue. Source: Deribit. The Spanish trader who is known on social networks as SantinoCripto, is also optimistic for bitcoin during the current month and the following months. He thinks that in the summer of the northern hemisphere (that is, between now and September), bitcoin will be lateralizing between 80,000 and 100,000 dollars. In September he would begin the 'bull run' that would last 2 or 3 months and take bitcoin that same month to $120,000. According to SantinoCripto's projection, In the final stage of the 'bull run', the digital currency could reach $160,000 or $180,000. Market analyst Willy Woo is another who remains bullish regarding bitcoin. He is convinced that The rise in the price of bitcoin in this bullish cycle could exceed, percentage-wise, that of the previous cycle. In his opinion, the arrival of spot ETFs in the United States is what will drive this movement:
«The 2021 cap was unique in that it was formed through outsiders (non-coins) selling BTC. Traders entered by selling the peaks while “accumulating” short positions with their dollar collateral. Thus we end up with an accumulation pattern, but in reverse. There was no runaway exponential top, just a moderate decline. Instead, new in 2024 are US spot market ETFs. For a regulated investor in traditional finance, they are much cheaper than futures markets. Therefore, volume is moving towards spot market ETFs.” Willy Woo, professional trader.
Having said all this, it is important to clarify that, although expectations are mostly bullish, The price of bitcoin is not determined by the desires of investors but by supply and demand. Therefore, high volatility is expected in the face of macroeconomic events or certain news. In that context, bearish corrections are not uncommon. Every investor should take appropriate risk management measures.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of BitcoinDynamic. The author's opinion is for informational purposes and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.