The European Union (EU) is headed for a smaller corn harvest this year due to the severe drought conditions and heat waves that have devastated crops in Eastern Europe this summer, particularly in Romania, one of the main producers. of the community block. Forecasts have been drastically reduced with estimates ranging between 60 and 61 million tons, a lower production level than that recorded the previous year, when 63 million tons were harvested, a figure still above 53 million tons. 2022, when the drought wreaked havoc throughout Europe. This collapse in production would lead the EU, a net importer of corn, to depend even more on abroad this season to satisfy its animal feed needs, especially at a time when The block is also forecast to harvest a lower volume of wheat and barley than usual. On the other hand, the scorching summer in Eastern Europe contrasts with the momentum that the rains have created in Western countries, which will cushion the fall, according to Brussels. But the drought, aggravated by water stress due to intense rains that occurred for several days in October, has taken its toll in Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece and Romania. The latter country used to compete with France for the title of largest corn producer of the Twenty-seven. Projections reveal a 30% decline in Romanian corn production compared to last year, when the country harvested almost 11 million tons. Specifically, the EU crop monitoring service, known as MARS, revised the harvest downwards in its latest report in August. European Commission experts predict a yield of around seven million tons – only 3.5 million tons have been collected in Romania so far. “Summer crops were particularly affected in regions where periods of drought and hot weather coincided with limited water availability,” as was the case in these four countries, the community report states. In addition, the Brussels estimates coincide with those of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). “Satellite data shows areas of reduced production along the Danube Valley in Romania and Bulgaria, and also in the Pannonian Basin, which covers Hungary, western Romania, northern Serbia and eastern Croatia. ”notes the American report. “Temperatures in these regions were constantly above 35 degrees, while rainfall during this period was minimal. «This caused a lack of soil moisture and an increase in plant stress,» he adds. The drought affected 2.5 million hectares in Romania, approximately 40% of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower crops, according to Ionel Arion, president of the National Pro Agro Federation. “The compensation from the Ministry of Agriculture, of 500 to 600 million euros, does not even cover the costs we had with crop seeds. It costs between 800 and 1,200 euros per hectare (compensation ranges between 200 and 230 euros per hectare), to which is added the rental payment,” laments the farmer, who anticipates that the consumer will be affected by the increase in imports. . His organization estimates losses of around 1.8 billion euros. “The ground is breaking; It is impossible to plow,” says Cosmin Paun, a farmer from Tecuci, a town in eastern Romania. He warns that farmers are in serious trouble cultivating their lands due to the extreme drought that has hit not only production, but also the wealth and quality of the soil itself both in the short term and in the coming years. “Given the situation of the soil, it is not even possible to prepare for autumn sowing,” laments Paun, who had never worked under these conditions: “It has barely rained since May of last year, it is not normal; The high temperatures that have lasted for a long time have destroyed many corn crops. “Corn is in a 100% dire state in the rainfed area,” emphasizes Radu Mărtinescu, a shareholder of Agromec Ciorăşti, a farm in about 900 hectares in Vrancea, also in the east of the country. “The situation is discouraging, the severe drought, together with the very high temperatures, has led to historic minimum productions,” he continues, before emphasizing that “the entire land is burned.” Mărtinescu estimates that “at least 35% of the corn grown in the country has serious problems” due to a phenomenon that could lead to the lowest corn production in the last 15 years, and recognizes that extreme heat presents a major challenge. colossal, since temperatures of 40 degrees during pollination in July have been highly damaging, affecting both the yield and quality of the corn.
The French case
In France, production was uncertain after a wet spring that complicated sowing. But the levels caused by the intense rains, which affected the wheat crop, kept the corn in good condition. The consulting firm Argus predicts the harvest at just over 14,000 million tons, slightly above the initial estimate of the French Ministry of Agriculture. The increase in surface area is another factor that should guarantee a harvest higher than last year. However, , abundant rainfall that should support yields in the rest of Europe hindered the planting and harvesting of the crop. According to the German agricultural association, the grain corn harvest will fall by 2%, to 4.41 million tons, while in Poland, where crop conditions are promising, lower planting means that corn production could be reduced 13% compared to the previous year, up to 7.6 million tons. This scenario of decline in the community bloc raises questions about the bloc's ability to achieve self-sufficiency in agricultural products in the midst of climate volatility.