There is a infrastructure boom in the world. Deutsche Bank estimates that, “to maintain the planned demand, the global investment before 2040 should be around 97 billion dollars [unos 94.000 millones de euros]and the sectors of electricity and roads will take more than half. ” And the German bank warns: «They are gigantic figures that require finely spinning in a context of growing indebtedness of the states, introducing new categories and evaluating their need and efficiency with four new indicators: resilience, sustainability, innovation and inclusion.» Given this panorama, Elena Aguilar, co -director of the Infrastructure Group and CMS projects, points out that “the challenges of the Financing are high and demand from private participation, which in recent years has been subject to very high interest rates and has scarce. ” Aguilar points out that “it is expected that the investment growth of 2024 will continue, also for sustained economic growth and an adjustment in the assessment of assets. On the other hand, the understanding of investors that it is necessary to have diversified wallets, ideally applying sustainable development criteria; The existing liquidity, and the availability of public funds should predict bonanza times by 2025 ″, adds. More information about BBVA recalls that “in 2024 the projects of the Aragon road plan were successfully signed with the participation of numerous construction companies and financing like BBVA, Santander and Sabadell, among others. With this project, the public-private (concession) collaboration scheme (concession) in a more relevant way than in recent years was used again. By 2025 we expect this scheme to encourage other public administrations to launch similar processes. Some have already shown interest, such as Andalusia, Extremadura and Madrid. ” Of course, the bank also highlights that “the challenge is to identify adequate infrastructure projects and specify the best way to promote and finance them.” It is available for plans that make sense and are correctly structured. ” In his opinion, «investment for executions with relevant social impact, but probably with less economic sense.» Until 2009 the country experienced a boom in public investment in infrastructure, reaching a maximum of 5.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Since then there has been a constant drop, stabilizing between 2% and 2.5% of GDP, and even being below 2%. Another of the barriers indicated by González is that “the concessional model is not adequate due to an inefficient distribution of risks between concessionary companies and public administration. The regulations are rigid, and the transposition of European directives has increased the risk associated with investment, which has discouraged private participation. ” In addition, “the budget deficit in maintenance is chronic; For example, public administrations invest about 2,000 million annually for roads, when real needs exceed 4,100 million. There is a lack of coherent strategic planning that has hindered the identification and prioritization of projects necessary for the sustainable development of the country. Likewise, there is a significant shortage of qualified labor to channel the funds available, ”laments González.
Lower uncertainty
The need for public-private cooperation is something that Mario Draghi pointed out in his latest report on the recovery of European competitiveness. “There must be guarantees of profitability, regulatory stability and legal certainty. Regulatory changes can generate high levels of uncertainty and in some way contribute to stop the investment, ”says Massimo Cermelli, professor of economy of Deusto Business School. More in sustainability and digitalization. ” And it puts some examples: 11 Spanish transport infrastructure projects will receive European financing through the mechanism connect Europe (MCE) and the recovery, transformation and resilience plan, with an approach in improving the rail network and other key infrastructure. ” There are cases of investments that are carried out integrally with private capital, adds Cermelli, “especially those with a clear profitability potential. One is the Spanish Formula 1 Grand Prix in Madrid, where the necessary works will be completely financed by private investors, without cost to public coffers ”. «It is worth noting another interesting aspect that involves Chinese companies that have shown interest in renewable projects and artificial intelligence in Aragon, reflecting the confidence of foreign investors in the potential of Spanish infrastructure,» says Massimo Cermelli.
Profitability and risk in imbalance
The latest EY report, Infrastructure Barometter, shows relevant data obtained from a global survey conducted between 80 senior executives, investors and financial institutions on the State and expectations of the infrastructure investment sector in Spain. 80% of the consulted recognized having remained active in this sector in the last four years thanks, above all, «to the high quality of our infrastructure and the attractiveness of the renewable energy and energy transition sectors in Spain.»
With a view to the coming months, a quarter of the participants in this survey expect to increase investments in the country, although 42% of them consider that the risk-benefit ratio “is currently partial or totally unbalanced”, despite Download of the types. The areas where they contemplate greater potential are those of artificial intelligence and data centers.