Bitcoin marked ATH 530 days after the halving, as in almost all cycles. Bitcoin fundamentals remain strong. Bitcoin surprises even when it does the same thing it has always done. That’s how immutable the most predictable asset in the world is. Believing that the arrival of new players would be able to eliminate the boom and bust cycles with which Bitcoin has grown for seventeen years was being arrogant, or naive. As they say, you don’t switch to Bitcoin; Bitcoin changes you. And this drop to USD 60,000 is a spoonful of humility for those of us who believed otherwise. Bitcoin repeated the same cycle it has always had, with or without BlackRock, with or without Trump, with or without Treasurers. As shown in the following comparative graph, the only difference is that the volatility is becoming lower, but The all-time high was reached more or less the same number of days after the halving than in previous cycles. And if history repeats itself, it could also be believed that the price will continue to fall, or sideways downward, in the coming months. This is another way of saying that everything is going according to plan, that We are watching the unfolding of the nature of Bitcoin. There was no catastrophe like FTX or Mt. Gox to justify the decline, beyond Quantum FUD or Binance FUD, which have also been cyclical. While the so-called 10/10 caused a historic peak in liquidations, it was a widespread event across all markets. As you can see, these are just regular Bitcoin times. It may sound esoteric to say that Bitcoin moves like a clock according to internal mechanics, without paying much attention to external events. But statistics confirm either that the driving force behind price action is halving cycles, or that, even more mystically, world events are synchronized to produce booms and busts at the same time as Bitcoin dances.
All Bitcoin cycles have lasted relatively the same. Picture made with Grok. On this occasion we cannot speak of halving cycles being a self-fulfilling prophecy. Starting because, for the first time, the previous all-time high was surpassed even before the halving, shortly after the approval of spot ETFs in the United States. Of course, that is without discounting inflation and the fall in the purchasing power of the dollar; Adjusted for inflation, the price did follow the same post-halving dynamic. By this we mean that from the beginning it began as an atypical cycle. And the presence of new actors with supposedly longer investment horizons propagated the narrative that large price corrections were part of Bitcoin’s immature pastand that now the deep pockets would guarantee that everything was up only. Lie. Asset managers have a fiduciary responsibility to their clients to actively manage their portfolios and ensure that their clients lose the least amount of money. They do not have any ideological conviction and do not have to endure losses of 50%. They make coverage. At the same time they buy long, they buy short, and cover their backs. And if some other asset is outperforming at any given time, or at least not crashing, goodbye Bitcoin. It’s your job. But that also reveals that the world has not understood absolute scarcity. It’s understandable; It is a concept unprecedented in history. We have never had an instrument of which we were completely certain of the inelasticity of its supply, of its finiteness. Bitcoin is the only asset with an adjustment mechanism that, unlike precious metals or any other commodity, limits the production of new units when the price rises driven by demand. This mechanism is so powerful that it makes the issuance of new bitcoins resistant to quantum computing. Even if a quantum computer could mine many bitcoins at a given time, after the period of 2016 blocks established for the difficulty adjustment, its mining and BTC issuance capacity would fall drastically, regulating the flow according to the schedule established by design. The world still thinks in terms of infinite fiat, and they believe that there will always be enough Bitcoin to buy whenever it is needed. But there is only less than a million left to mine. AND This awareness radically changes your vision of the future of money.
It is because of this understanding that Strategy has become a black hole in which any Bitcoin that enters is unlikely to see the light of the market again. And this is not the first time they have experienced a bear market. ETFs, on the other hand, are experiencing a bear market for the first time, and in the last four months they have found it better to reduce their exposure. Despite this, they continue to hold 6% of all bitcoins, with minimal variation despite being below their purchase average. The Treasurers, also in their first fall, still underwater, remain solvent and unsold.
ETFs have had their biggest run of outflows in their history since November. Source: SoSoValue.
Bitcoin fundamentals remain intact. Bitcoin remains the only absolutely scarce asset in history; continues to operate on a decentralized, neutral and censorship-resistant network; It keeps adding a block to the ledger every ten minutes. Furthermore, with the world’s largest banks starting to offer loans collateralized with Bitcoin and more countries wanting to establish reserves, it would be short-sighted to believe that this is the end of Bitcoin. Over the past few months, many have decreed that Bitcoin’s four-year cycles were dead, and that institutionalists were its executioners. But reality showed that Bitcoin does not change its rhythms due to the entry of new actors. Now they will also experience their first Bitcoin bear market as it has touched all mortals. This is a reset, like so many, in which the market shakes off the tourists, and rebuilds stronger. If history repeats itself, as it has so far, a new halving will probably be the prelude to new all-time highs. You have to act accordingly.
