According to Alerzio, an analyst at Santiment, April 11 is important for Bitcoin (BTC) and can confirm a possible thesis related to the halving.

Halving is the most important economic event for Bitcoin, it takes place on a scheduled basis every 4 years, approximately, and cuts the issuance of new coins on the network in half.

The history of the BTC price chart clearly shows that the halving is viewed with good eyes by traders, and the community itself does not deny that it sees the event as extremely bullish (positive).

For analyst Alerzio, however, the halving is divided into 3 phases when we are talking about impacts on the price of bitcoin. The first is the price hike that happens right after the halving on the network (7/11/16 and 3/4/20 were the last two).

price hike after halvings
The last two halvings and the price hike that followed. Reproduction/Santiment.

The second is the “climax”, the peak of BTC price after the end of the halving-driven bull run. Interestingly, in the last two halvings the climax happened exactly 518 days after the event.

Climax in the last halvings. Reproduction/Santiment.

The third phase is less exciting, it’s the correction that happens around midway between one halving and another. According to the analyst:

“Based on the previous cycle, on the same timeline, the BTC price was struggling with a major resistance and failed to break the so-called resistance level that caused the continuation of a long-lasting bear market.

And what about the current situation? The important resistance on the way is the $50,000 level. April 11, 2022 is the Mid-Halving correction of the current cycle and if the price manages to stabilize above this level, then we can give more credence to the thesis that says: ‘this cycle is different from the others.’”.

If history repeats itself, then we will see a price correction hurting holders. This is not what Santiment believes, however, as on-chain metrics looking at whales and net activity indicate a different picture.

In July 2018, in the third phase of the penultimate halving, Bitcoin saw about 600,000 daily active addresses, but now the network has almost 900,000. “Network activity has been reduced,” says Alerzio. “But it is still much bigger than the previous halving. This could be a sign of higher network usage compared to 2018.”

Active bitcoin addresses
Active addresses. Source: Santiment

In addition, whales are much more confident in this cycle than in the previous one, as demonstrated by the number of wallets that hold thousands of bitcoins.

Whales buying bitcoin. Source: Santiment

In July 2018, the whales were undecided and after a short time holders with a balance of 100 to 1,000 BTC started selling their bitcoins while the richest were the buyers. This layer of investors (with a balance of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) has already started accumulating more bitcoins while we are just a week away from the “mid-halving correction”.

Thus, the analyst concluded that he does not believe in another bearish move in 7 days. As market participants are reacting differently, the cycle will take its own course.

This does not necessarily mean that we are going to the moon, but that the BTC price trend will be mature, because investors are maturing, concluded Alerzio.

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