The price of bitcoin has not yet hit rock bottom. At least that’s the conclusion analysts at the Huobi Research Institute, the research division of cryptocurrency exchange Huobi, reached in a recently published report.
In the text titled “Is Another Black May Coming” — or “Is Another Dark May Coming?”, in literal translation — researchers Barry Jiang and Hanson Chan claim that, when it comes to bitcoin (BTC), “the bottom of the market is is yet to come and value investors should wait to buy.”
Huobi’s logic comes from the argument that the market bottom for bitcoin can be determined by analyzing its percentage of net unrealized profit/loss (or NUPL), which is the difference between the market capitalization of the bitcoin and its realized capitalization, divided by its market capitalization.
Bitcoin realized capitalization represents the realized value of all coins on the network based on the price at which each unspent transaction (or UTXO) was last moved. Unrealized capitalizations do not consider lost or inactive coins.
The NUPL has five different classifications: euphoria/greed, belief/denial, optimism/anxiety, hope/fear, and capitulation.
The capitulation phase is when the price is at its lowest level, that is, it is the best time for buyers, following this logic. Based on the NUPL chart, the asset is in the “fear” rating and has likely not yet reached the bottom price for the current cycle.
As explained by blockchain data analytics platform CryptoQuant in its assessment of Bitcoin’s NUPL: “Investors are in the Fear phase, with unrealized profits just above losses.”
Jiang from Huobi told the decrypt via email that his estimate for the bitcoin fund is between $20,000 and $25,000. Yuga Hasegawa, a market analyst at Japanese crypto exchange Bitbank, has a less optimistic forecast.
“From the previous two phases of capitulation, we can see that the price has dropped by around 40-50% after the NUPL turns orange [para Esperança/Medo]. So, if the pattern replicates, the current price of bitcoin could drop to around $15,000. This is in line with my technical analysis published on Monday (9) (although my target price is a little lower: $12,200),” Hasegawa told decrypt via email.
This week, bitcoin has dropped below $30,000 and is currently trading at $28,500.
Benjamin Cowen, crypto analyst and CEO of quantitative market analysis platform Into the Cryptoverse, told decrypt that, based on a number of different metrics, “there may still be more drops” in the current market.
“The current [retorno sobre investimento] a year shows there could be more declines,” Cowen said, referring to a chart with data from analytics firm CoinMetrics, adding that the number of long-term bitcoin holders (who have invested in the cryptocurrency for more than six months) also stagnated a few months ago.
Public interest in cryptocurrencies also appears to be on the wane for the time being, according to data from social media analytics website Social Blade, which shows that major crypto channels on YouTube are losing viewers.
But regardless of what retail investors think about cryptocurrencies, some analysts believe that blockchain metrics such as NUPL are not useful in the current juncture.
“To be honest, I find blockchain metrics quite useless in the current market, as bitcoin is clearly well linked to the stock market during this terrible market,” Bendik Norheim Schei, research lead at Arcane Research, told decrypt via email.
“The correlation with [índice] Nasdaq hit a record high and investors are putting bitcoin in the same cart as risky tech stocks,” added Schei.
So how can investors determine where the bitcoin price might go in the coming weeks and months?
“The stock market is the leading indicator of bitcoin right now,” Schei said. “The current $30k level being tested this week was a pretty strong support level in 2021 and is holding, but I wouldn’t put my money into it if the stock market keeps going down,” he explained.
Lil Read, senior analyst at GlobalData, shared a similar view, but also argued that cryptocurrencies are not working as a hedge against inflation.
“Many crypto investors see the fact that [criptomoedas] are not tied to the value of traditional assets, such as gold, a company’s stock, or fiat currencies, as intrinsic to the attraction and value proposition of cryptocurrencies,” she told the magazine. decrypt via email.
“Some crypto bulls have even looked to cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation, but this is clearly not working — the reality is that in recent weeks, cryptocurrencies have followed broad market trends.”
Read cited the US Federal Reserve’s recent decision to raise interest rates as the main trigger for the fall, adding that “in an environment of rising interest rates, investors often become risk averse.”
In her view, “Crypto pricing dynamics will likely reflect broad market trends until we see a new level of stability — which could take a few months or even years.”
*Translated by Daniela Pereira do Nascimento with permission from decrypt.co.