The cryptocurrency economist and analyst Alex Krüger decided to get into the intense debate about whether Bitcoin halving was priced or not.
Bitcoiners seem increasingly divided about how the event will affect the price of the main cryptocurrency, while some are excited about the future appreciation of the asset, others say investors have already priced the event by buying ahead.
++ Understand what halving is and exactly how it works
The predictions are broad. Some say Bitcoin's price history shows that halvings have an immediate and irrefutable bullish effect.
Others say Bitcoin prices will rise in the months before halving. And many analysts say traders must be prepared for halving to make no impact.
As for Krüger, he says that preparing for halving will be critical.
Discuss whether bitcoin halving is priced or not five months earlier of the event makes no sense. The date is too far away for the market to have any clarity on this.
If the price rises significantly just before halving, then one might think that halving may be priced.
For a somewhat analogous analysis, you can see how the price has risen for CME's December 2017 futures release, or risky assets around Federal Open Market Committee elections or events. ”
He says the event is definitely not priced due to the simple fact that no one knows what miners – who essentially create new bitcoins through transaction verification – will do.
“The 'pricing' argument is based on the miner emission reduction being totally deterministic (ie known).
However, the behavior of the miners is not like this. Miners may speculate with stock or accumulate.
Supply can therefore decrease with halving or even increase if prices are not high enough. ”
In summary, Kruger concludes with some conclusions:
- Halving is not priced
- The event can be bullish or bearish (optimistic or pessimistic for the price)
- In the long run, event is positive for Bitcoin quote
Read also: A brief Bitcoin halving dossier