The Bitcoin (BTC) market reacted slightly upwards today to new economic data from the United States that calmed fears of a recession. These were the publication of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter and weekly applications for unemployment benefits.
GDP in the financial powerhouse rose 3% in the second quarterabove the 2.8% estimate released a month ago, which markets had expected to hold. The better-than-expected result was influenced by a 2.9% increase in personal consumption expenditure, above the 2.3% forecast. Thus, GDP indicates stronger than expected economic growth and higher than the first quarter of the year, which was 1.4%, as shown below.
US GDP by quarter and forecast. Source: Investing. “More data that does not align with the 'imminent recession and bear market' thesis,” said Chris Ciovacco, founder and CEO of the investment firm Ciovacco Capital Management. In line with this, Jeroen Blokland, founder of the Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund, a fund based on bitcoin and other assets, distinguished that “this is not what a recession looks like.” He also highlights that inflation is falling in the United States, which reflects improvements in the economy. In addition, New applications for unemployment benefits in the economic powerhouse remained practically stable last weektotaling 231,000. This shows that the cooling of the labor market, which led to falls in the markets at the beginning of August, has not accelerated. This combination of data reflects that the United States is not in recession at the moment. “In general, this is very bullish for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies,” said the trader famous by his pseudonym Ash Crypto. With this panorama, the price of bitcoin today reached 61,000 dollars (USD), its maximum in three days, although it later erased part of the growth. In this way, the market continues to show high volatility in the face of new economic data, as BitcoinDynamic has been reporting.
Bitcoin price so far this day. Source: TradingView.
The market seems to be waiting for more signs of economic improvement
Economist Daniel Muvdi considered the GDP result to be good news for the economy. “It is important to maintain growth to avoid recession,” he said. However, in his opinion, there are still risks of recession, based on the perception of residents regarding the ease or difficulty of finding a job. He warns that this metric, which is based on surveys, reached its lowest levels since 2017, meaning that people believe that finding a job is difficult. The graph below shows how residents' feelings on this issue have evolved over time.
How easy is it to get a job? Source: Daniel Muvdi. “The drop in this indicator reflects less optimism about the availability of jobs and could be confirming the cooling of the labor market,” he notes. He warns that, historically, these setbacks have preceded recessions. In this sense, for Muvdi, We must closely monitor data on the labor marketThis may explain the lack of sustained momentum in the Bitcoin market in the face of higher than expected GDP. Therefore, it is possible to see a marked direction in the face of clearer signs of economic development.
