The financing flow again, the granting of mortgages has increased considerably during the last year – in March the rise was 44.5% year -on -year, according to the INE -, they begin to see credits for more than 80% of the appraisal value, the interest rates are lowering and there is an accelerated growth of the price of the housing. Mortgages for all? Danger of credit bubble? Today there are no overheating signs, although a powerful reactivation of the concession of mortgages. The Bank of Spain discards it, although it has recognized being preparing a frame to limit the concession of mortgages in case the market is faded. The Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE) also: “Housing credit is increasing because there is a solvent demand against a shortage of supply, but the mortgage portfolio is at historically low levels in relation to GDP, around 40%, compared to 95% observed in the period 2006-2009,” says Leyre López, Analyst of the AHE. On the other hand, the sale ratio with financing is at levels lower than those of the time 2015-2022. Caixabank sources add that the debt of the families is in minimums and the savings at maximum, therefore, “a situation of mortgage bubble does not seem the most likely scenario in the short or medium term”. The Department of Analysis and Markets of Bankinter and economist Gonzalo Bernardos support this thesis. It is true that the bank has stepped on the accelerator and lent 19,444 million euros in housing credit in the first quarter of the year, 25.4% more than in the same period of the previous year. Even so, it remains far from the levels of 2008. “At the end of the year the credit granted by banks to acquire housing will be approximately in real terms (discounting inflation) around 35% of the granted in 2006, the historical maximum,” estimates Bernardos. The digital platforms, through which almost one in four mortgages in Spain are signed, also describe a very different panorama from the 2008. TRIECA. And sentence: «There is no credit bubble, but a brutal tension in access to housing.» In the same line they are pronounced from other mortgage wholesalers. Juan Pablo Caturi, director of Operations in Helloteca, is overwhelming: «We are not in a systemic risk situation.» There is more activity, but not lack of control. «The current mortgage market is more solid, regulated and guarded than the one at the time, although it is convenient not to lower the guard,» says Elena Ansótegui, CEO of Wypo. Also in 2008 the bubble was refused at first, so what are the red lines that would act this time to the Bank of Spain? The over -indebtedness, explains Leyre López, is measured through a combination of factors, such as that LTV levels (in English, Loan to Value, a percentage of a loan with respect to the value of appraisal of the real estate) will rise above 80% considerably without additional guarantees or that the mortgage load pressed more than one third the rent of households. «These ratios are also stressed to show the regulator that the client can cope with the mortgage during the 30 years of validity of the product,» they indicate in CaixaBank. In Helpmycash they recognize that banks are granting more mortgages above 80% on appraisal value, 90% or even 100%. According to the Bank of Spain, the percentage of mortgages for more than 80% on the appraisal value was 6.7% during the first quarter of 2024. In the first quarter of 2025 that percentage increased to 10.9%, the highest since 2019. Now, “that does not necessarily mean that the banks assume greater risk,” says Miquel Riera, expert in mortgages of this platform. At this point we must take into account the effect of the public guarantees offered by the State, through ICO, and by autonomous communities such as Madrid, Castilla y León, Andalucía or Baleares, which cover between 15% and 20% of the financing. «Yes there is a slight increase in the granting of mortgages to young people with guarantees or through public or private programs,» says Caturi. In Helpmycash they consider reasonable that mortgages are granted above 80% of the appraisal value provided that the applicant has stable income and can comfortably assume the fee. «Recall that the price of housing has been markedly increased in recent years, which makes it difficult to gather sufficient entry,» says Riera Red line is the relaxation of the concession criteria by the entities, something that is not detected right now. «Banks grant mortgages, mainly to applicants with solid financial profiles. The minimum requirements of the banks are income from 1,200 euros per month and labor seniority of at least six months as indefinite,» says Ansótegui. Although many citizens believe that it is enough to have an entry to access a mortgage, the reality is that banks evaluate three key factors. One is the ability to save: «The origin of money matters: an entry fruit of years of orderly savings generates much more confidence than a specific income such as an inheritance or a prize,» Garriga details. «Even with high income, a lack of savings or an excessive expenses history can be reasons to deny the mortgage,» adds Ansótegui.
The reform and the car
Another is the financial effort ratio, which should generally exceed 30% of income, Leyre López recalls. The last factor is the family profile and linkage potential. «The bank wants to accompany that family for 30 years: to finance a reform, offer insurance, a loan for studies or a car,» recalls Garriga. These input requirements are clear, it only remains to know which mortgage is the best now that the ECB has just cut the types this week for the eighth time and the Euribor is already at 2,081%. The choice of mortgage depends on the risk tolerance of the citizen and the market situation, although there is consensus to bet on the fixed type. «At present, fixed with a period of more than 10 years are gaining strength, since they represent 70% of the new hiring. Together with the mixed, they represent 90% of the market. These modalities offer greater medium and long term stability, and in the current context of favorable credit offers and remission of inflation they are managing to attract a good part of the market,» says the analist of the AHE. In Caixabank they believe that the fixed type is the most convenient offer for individuals for their protection against types of types. The fixed remains the majority option in the new hiring and the variable is maintained as an almost residual option in its case. In Bankinter, 70% of signed mortgages are also fixed. 56% of customers who have signed a mortgage this year with the entity are between 36 and 55 years old, followed by the youth collective. They look for their first home, on average financing 71% of the purchase or appraisal price.
