Wall Street is trading with a mixed sign this Tuesday after the earnings Monday as investors prepare to hear a series of inflation data which will be key to determining the magnitude of the cut that will be carried out by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its meeting next week. Thus, on Wednesday the report will be announced August CPIfor which a moderation in the general rate is expected to 2.6% from the previous 2.9% and stability in the underlying rate at 3.2%. On Thursday it will be the turn of the production prices and of the weekly unemployment data. All this will serve to finally tip the balance between a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut by the Fed. Although, putting things into perspective, A 25 bp cut is much more likelysince the Fed only applies 50 bp cuts in situations of financial emergency or threat of recession. And, currently, that is not the scenario for the American economy. «For the moment, and until investors have a clearer idea of the macroeconomic and interest rate scenario that listed companies will have to face in the coming months, We expect volatility to remain high on European and US stock marketswhich will be unable to adopt a definitive trend,» say Link Securities.
FIRST FACE TO FACE BETWEEN HARRIS AND TRUMP
The other focus of interest for the market is in the political sphere and in the First presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. «The Harris' experience as a prosecutor in California makes her a threat to Trump in this debateand could counteract some of his bragging, which could give him an advantage,» says Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB. Meanwhile, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, points out that «a Trump victory would benefit big oil companies, small domestic businesses, and cryptocurrencies. If we do the same exercise with Kamala Harris, a Harris victory would benefit companies focused on ESG criteria and on ecology, healthcare, infrastructure and technology, as it places special emphasis on sustainable and inclusive growth.» However, at Bankinter they believe that It is impossible to anticipate how the debate will turn out. and in what direction it will move the market. Therefore, they estimate that «if it does not offer a strange outcomethat is, both do acceptably and neither clearly wins, And if American inflation declines tomorrow up to the range +2.5%/+2.6%, then Stocks will tend to bounce back a bit until the Fed meeting on the 18th…which should offer a similar approach to that of the ECB and thus continue to facilitate self-confidence in the stock markets and rebounds.»
COMPANIES AND OTHER MARKETS
On the business level, Oracle soars 10% after exceed expectations with their results of the first fiscal quarter and to announce a Partnership with Amazon Web Services to provide database services. It is also back in the news Applewhich falls more than 1% after the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has confirmed that the technology will have to pay 13 billion euros in unpaid taxes to Ireland between 2003 and 2014, thanks to a series of tax advantages. This after a cold reception by the market to the new iPhone 16focused on the artificial intelligence but it has not been exciting. In other markets, oil West Texas down 1.41% ($67.74) and the Brent loses 1.31% ($70.90). For its part, the euro appreciates 0.10% ($1.1041), and the ounce of gold is quoted flat ($2,532). In addition, the 10-year US bond yield is revalued at 3.714% and the bitcoin rises 0.57% ($57,246).