Wall Street is trading with a mixed sign this Thursday, after yesterday's closing due to the celebration of the 'Juneteenth', the day on which the end of slavery in the North American country was commemorated. In the session, the S&P 500 has exceeded 5,500 points for the first time, although it has not been able to retain them. US equities maintain the upward trend of recent weeks, largely driven by the good performance of technology companies such as Apple and, above all, those values associated with artificial intelligence (AI). «The Nasdaq shows no sign of weakness»says César Nuez, technical analyst at BitcoinDynamic. The maximum exponent of this bull market is being, to no one's surprise, Nvidia. The Californian company continues to make history and capitalize on the AI boom, which has led it to become the most valuable company in the world after surpassing a giant like Microsoft.
AI REIGNS THE MARKET
And it is that Investors continue to bet on AI heavyweights. So far this year, Nvidia is close to tripling its stock market price after rising around 80% since last April. «For now We do not see even the slightest sign of weakness that would make us think about taking profits«explains Nuez. The rise of the Santa Clara company has spread to other chip manufacturers such as Broadcomwhich is up more than 60% in 2024. «Is it any surprise that we continue to maintain that Wall Street (i.e., the S&P 500) is beating a different drum than Main Street (the underlying US economy)? Without a doubt, The influence of generative AI as a driver of continuous incremental growth is permeating the US equity environment right now«says Citi's director of US equity strategy, Scott Chronert. Despite this, other strategists such as Richard Hunter, director of markets at Interactive Investor, show their concern about the apparent lack of breadth in the market. The stock market binge of technological stocks seems to be partially covering figures such as those of retail sales, which grew less than expected in May, showing clear signs of slowing spending and possible economic weakness. «The most discreet behavior of the Dow Jones has compounded concerns that recent rallies of equities have focused exclusively in large-cap tech stocks, as opposed to a broader-based recovery» he details. According to Hunter, the impending semi-annual reporting season, which begins next month, should provide a better idea of how companies are doing and how overbought some stocks could be. «The topic of AI has a very air dosmilerobut as we know the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The day of reckoning will come, but it is difficult to stand in the way of a speeding train,» says Thomas Fitzpatrick, managing director of RJ O'Brien and Associates, in statements reported by 'CNBC'. For his part, Hunter points out that these data will «reignite» debate over the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates, given the importance of the consumer to the fate of the American economy. In this sense, analysts at Oxford Economics emphasize that these data indicate that the US economy «continues to gradually slow down and provides little support for the idea that the economy is about to fall off a cliff.» «With the economic outlook benign, the Federal Reserve will continue to focus on incoming inflation data to judge the timing of its first rate cut and the path forward. We expect upcoming inflation reports to provide more encouraging news, which we believe will will pave the way for Federal Reserve officials start signaling more strongly that the first rate cut is coming soon; Our view, which we have held for a long time, is that the first cut will come at the September meeting«, they point out.
MACRO AND OTHER MARKETS
Some important references for the market have appeared on this Thursday's agenda, such as data from Home building, that have fallen below expectations, or the weekly unemployment figures, that have fallen less than anticipated by the analyst consensus. Likewise, we will have to be attentive to the reading that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and the words of Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed and one of the toughest ('hawkish') members of the North American central bank. In recent weeks, Kashkari has stressed that interest rates need to remain at high levels for longer before starting to cut interest rates. In other markets, the dollar It depreciates against the euro (-0.17%, $1.0723) after its recent advances against the rest of the currencies. On the other hand, the raw is mixed: the Brent rises to $85.87 and the WTI advances to $82.27. The ounce of gold is flat and is trading at $2,353, while the silver It revalued by 2.3% and climbed to $30.2. He bitcoin remains downcast and tries to consolidate the $65,500 and the ethereum seeks to regain $3,600. Finally, the 10-year US bond yield rises to 4.292%.