Wall Street has closed with a mixed sign this Wednesday (Dow Jones: -0.10%; S&P 500: -0.03%; Nasdaq: +0.13%) After the decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the words of its president, Jerome Powellwho has pointed out that they are in no hurry to cut the types. This, without losing sight of the Conflict between Israel and Iranabove all, after the threatening messages of Donald Trump. And it is that the US president has warned Tehran that «Know exactly where he hides» Iranian supreme leader, Ali Jameneialthough he is not going to «kill him», at the «less for now». Thus, the president and some members of his administration have left the open door to a direct American intervention in the conflictwith the aim of finally ending with the Iranian uranium enrichment program. «If so, and directly involve the US in the military conflict, The tension in the region could increase, with Iran, opting to attack the US bases and trying to block the Ormuz Straitwhere 30% of the world oil that moves by boat and, approximately, 20% of world oil production travels daily. However, we understand that this possibility is remote since it would also harm Iran, which would see their income in this way at a time of high need, «they say in Link Securities.»Investors are discarding the risk, preparing for a greater escalation and a possible prolongation of tensions with Iran. China is nervous, since you buy Iranian oil, while Russia is restless to see one of her last key allies under a growing threat. Israel, meanwhile, wants to eliminate nuclear threat, and The United States seems to be accepting the idea of a regime change in Iran«, Value Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote Bank's senior analyst. Jamenei It has not been expected and has expressed that they will «not give up.» At the same time, the Persian leader has threatened the United States with «Irreparable damage» if Washington carries out a military attack against the countryin alliance with Israel. In this sense, Ozkardeskaya believes that «A higher escalation would probably boost the demand for American treasure bonds with longer maturitieswould help the US dollar to recover part of their commercial losses and raise gold prices to historical maximums. At the same time, oil prices could be kept supported by the fear that they will go, if it is pressed, can block energy flows through the Ormuz Strait, where approximately 20% of the world and gas supply is. «The truth is that the Conflict in the Middle East is causing investors set aside other issues of great relevance For markets, as highlighted in Link Securities. «Among them negotiations between the US and some of its main business partnerssuch as Canada, Mexico, the European Union (EU), India and Japan, negotiations that, although they seem to advance, do not finish closing. The greatest risk to bags is that the deadline for this, on July 9, is getting closer and, although many of these countries are willing to continue negotiating, It is unpredictable what the Trump government may decide at that time«They indicate.
The Fed and Powell, also protagonists
And in the midst of this complicated scenario, the Fed He has announced his decision decision. In line with the anticipated by the market, the Central Bank has returned to Keep rates without changes, in the fork between 4.25%-4.50%in what is the fourth consecutive pause of its current flexibility cycle. The agency has also advanced that it is still waiting Two cuts this year. At this meeting, the Fed has updated its projectionswhich they show A 2025 of lower growth and greater unemployment. With regard to the economy, he considers that the GDP 1.4%will grow in 2025, three tenths less than its previous estimate. The agency now foresees an unemployment rate of 4.5%, compared to 4.4% estimated in March. The US Central Bank Revised upward PCE inflation for this yearup to 3.0%, three tenths above the March forecast. For next year it has raised it to 2.4%, from the previous 2.2%. In the case of the underlying variableit has also been reviewed upwards, and now it hopes that it will be 3.1% in 2025 and in 2.4% in 2026. Similarly, investors have remained attentive to the words of Powellwho has commented that they are «well positioned to wait and learn more about the probable course of the economy before considering some adjustment to our political position. «About the dutythe head of the Fed has insisted that the effects «will depend, among other things, on its final level. It is likely that tariff increases this year Promote upward prices and hurt economic activity«.» All those who know are predicting a significant increase in tariff pricesbecause someone has to pay them. «» While the economy is solid, while we see the type of labor market we have, and inflation continues to go down, The most correct thing is to follow where we are And learn more, «Powell emphasized.» The labor market is not shouting a type cut, «said the central banker.
Economy and other markets
As for the macro agenda, this Wednesday has been the turn of the weekly unemployment requeststhat have fallen in line with the expected. The data advances its publication because this Thursday Wall Street will remain closed by the holiday of 'Juneteenth' (Day of the end of slavery). In other markets, oil West Texas has closed flat ($ 74.82) and the Brent It has dropped 0.12% ($ 76.36). For its part, the euro 0.05% ($ 1,1473), and the ounce of gold has lost 0.64% ($ 385). In addition, the 10 -year American Bonus Profitability It has relaxed 4,389% and the Bitcoin It has fallen 1.25% ($ 103,700).
