The tariff policy implemented by the United States in 2025 revives protectionism, but the hesitant commercial positions of the Donald Trump administration have generated uncertainty. Particularly in the case of Mexico. However, when analyzing the figures in the middle of the year, the results of this policy have been unexpected. The country records the lowest average weighted tariff among the main exporters to the US, just 8.3% in June. The best relative position is transcendental, so Mexico remains as the main commercial partner of the United States. In addition, Mexican exports to this country increased 4.9%, accumulating $ 261 billion. Although the most surprising effect is probably the innovative response of the Mexican government. For the American commercial policy, it has negative effects. Uncertainty has led to foreign direct investment in the Mexican automotive sector fell by 14.2%. Likewise, the export of light vehicles to the US decreased by 2.9% in volume and 5.6% in value, despite the mitigation of the tariff for units with American content that meet rules of T-MEC origin. The Mexican export portfolio focuses on manufacturing, 90% of the total. Geographically, the concentration is also high, 83.3% of Mexican exports went to the US. Moreover, the automotive industry – motor of the Mexican economy – is that which is most marketed internationally, and that at the same time, generates exports from other industries due to the integration of supply networks. Therefore, any type of commercial barrier has a network effect in Mexico and in the US. Although the health contingency of the COVID-19 officially concluded in 2021, the “contagios” are now commercial. On September 9, 2025, Mexico announced tariffs of up to 50% to imports from countries without free trade treaty – among them China, Brazil and India – to “shield” the national industry and reduce commercial imbalance with Asia. It is a positive signal: Mexico recognizes, how could it be otherwise, that its future is in North America. These tariffs should help in Trump negotiation. However, arguing that they seek to correct imbalances or protect the national industry reproduces the same reasoning that Trump uses to justify his measures against Mexico and the world. What should be done is to document unfair practices such as dumping or violations of intellectual property. In addition, taking care that intermediate products tariffs do not affect the competitiveness of Mexican manufacturing. Mexico must work hand in hand with the US to establish tariffs when there are unfair practices or real security threats. But it must avoid falling into a protectionism that ends up damaging its consumers and limiting their competitiveness. Diego López, Carlos Serrano and Samuel Vázquez, by BBVA Research.