Jefferies continues to trust Iberdrola in the face of results and forecasts an 11% increase in EBITDA

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By TP

The investment bank Jefferies maintains its ‘buy’ recommendation on Iberdrola and its target price in 17.6 euros per sharewhile anticipating solid results in the third quarter of 2025. The entity expects that the electricity company will present an EBITDA of around 4,000 million euros in the quarterwhich would mean year-on-year growth of 11%driven by good performance of the regulated business in all marketsespecially in the United States and the United Kingdom. Jefferies further estimates that The accumulated net profit until September will reach 5,000 million euroswhich would rise to 5.1 billion euros adjusted for the British tax credit. This benefit is equivalent to 83% of your annual forecast. He Quarterly net profit would remain practically stable at 1.3 billion euros. Likewise, he anticipates that Net debt will be reduced by 8% quarter-on-quarter, to 48.6 billion eurosdriven by the capital increase of 5,000 million carried out during the year. The report highlights that The regulated business (networks) will be the main driver of the quarterwith a 12% increase in EBITDA, up to 1,800 million euros, thanks to growth in the US (+13%) and the United Kingdom (+18%). In the accumulated figure for the year, this segment would have improved by 25%, up to 6,071 million euros. In the area of Generation, Production and Customers (EP&C)Jefferies predicts an EBITDA of 2.2 billion euros in the third quarter, 9% more than in the same period of 2024. The figure includes a capital gain of 380 million euros for the sale of the smart meter business in the United Kingdom. Without this extraordinary effect, the segment’s EBITDA would have fallen by around 10%, due to a high comparative base in Spain. By geography, Jefferies highlights the strong progress in the United Kingdom in Generation, Production and Customers (EBITDA of 500 million in the third quarter, +81%), the recovery of Mexico (120 million, +98%) and the growth of the rest of the world (190 million, +43%), compared to the decline in Spain (1,100 million, -9%) and Brazil (48 million, -29%). «Taken together, we consider that these results support Iberdrola’s ability to maintain high single-digit earnings per share (EPS) growth«, concludes Jefferies. Results for the third quarter and the first nine months will be published on October 28.