While many expect Donald Trump (Republican candidate), with his deregulatory approach, to be Bitcoin's best ally, asset manager VanEck suggests that Kamala Harris (Democratic candidate), could be more beneficial to the digital currency than the former president. How is this possible? VanEck, through a report led by Matthew Sigel, director of digital asset research, and Nathan Frankovitz, investment analyst, explains its perspective on the elections on November 5. According to the firm, a hypothetical victory of Harris, who has maintained a moderate speech regarding cryptocurrencies, could generate an unexpected impact on the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Presidential candidates have different approaches to bitcoin. Source: Pinterest. Even though Harris could keep Gary Gensler as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or align herself with figures like Senator Elizabeth Warren, known for her anti-cryptocurrency stance, VanEck argues that this restrictive regulatory environment would indirectly benefit the first digital currency. While Warren's proposals seek to control cryptocurrency transactions and increase oversight, negatively affecting the digital ecosystem at large, Bitcoin stands out for its unique structure, which allows transactions without intermediarieswhich would make it even more competitive amid tighter regulations. VanEck argues that under a Harris presidency, “the structural problems driving bitcoin adoption would accelerate,” and its regulatory clarity would better position it against other digital assets. This is due to Bitcoin’s decentralized design that allows users — both governments and individuals — to transact without relying on banks or middlemen. This system contrasts with current banking systems that rely on multiple intermediaries and trusted entities to facilitate transactions.
Trump promises broad deregulation
On the other hand, Trump promises deregulation and business-friendly policies, so VanEck believes that a Trump presidency is, in general, “bullish for the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem.” However, its recent foray into the world of crypto assets has been less encouraging. The launch of its World Liberty Financial platform has not generated the expected enthusiasm, and the lack of concrete details has left investors with more questions than answers, as reported by BitcoinDynamic. Analysts, such as Simon Dixon, criticize the timing of the launch and suggest this could alienate part of the Bitcoin communitywhich traditionally opposes any form of centralized control. Regardless of the election result, the trend of “growing fiscal deficits and rising national debt will continue,” which could weaken the dollar and, according to VanEck, create an ideal macroeconomic environment for bitcoin to continue to thrive.
Kamala Harris leads key states
For the moment, Harris appears to have the upper hand in the race. According to data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the Democratic candidate is leading in four of the six key states, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, with probabilities ranging from 51% to 66%.
Key States for the US Presidential Elections Source: Polymarket While a Trump presidency could open doors for the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, VanEck suggests Harris, paradoxically, might be better for Bitcoin in particularThe election will determine the course, but it is clear that both candidates have significant implications for the future of digital currencies in the United States.