Inflection

Foto del autor

By TP


A couple of weeks ago, the businessman and head of one of the country’s main business conglomerates, Roberto Angelini, said at the exit of the National Business Meeting, Enade, something that few have dared to say in recent years. Angelini, contradicting the trend that has prevailed in the diagnoses of the national economic situation, said that in Chile «there is optimism floating in the air for what is coming in the near future.» And although several monthly surveys of expectations do not seem to endorse Angelini’s vision, it would be wrong not to recognize that what the businessman stated a couple of weeks ago is beginning to be perceived in the business environment. And the fact is that, however, for example, just this week, the Monthly Business Confidence Indicator (IMCE) prepared by the UAI and Icare confirmed that business confidence was “anchored for a year and a half anchored in the same level of pessimism”, there are other pieces of the puzzle that are beginning to assemble in the sense of a possible inflection point that marks a change of direction in the concavity of the curve of recent years. For now, it can be mentioned that the latest Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) of the Central Bank dared to anticipate a growth range for 2026 that was marginally better than the previous estimate and the trend of estimates in recent years. For the normally conservative issuing institute, in 2026 the economy could expand in a range between 1.75% and 2.75%, the latter ceiling having no less symbolic value, when the cadence of recent performances has been more in the territory of 2% than 3%. The main indicator of the Stock Market, the Ipsa, for its part, closed this week at a record of 9,400 points, after reaching 52 historical highs. If we are to believe that the capital market is the barometer par excellence of the moods of economic agents, it seems that what the stock market is saying is what stock prices technically do, namely, that they rise when there are expectations of better future flows. To the aforementioned background we must add that some perception studies are pointing their needles in the direction of an improvement in conditions. Perhaps the most significant data is that provided by the latest National Public Opinion Survey of the CEP, which has just confirmed a rise of five points (up to a weak 16%, yes) in the number of people who estimate that the current economic situation is “good or very good”, to which is added a jump of nine points in those who see that the country’s situation will improve in the next 12 months. Encouraging signs that the study also collected in the questions about the personal situation and perspectives of those consulted. Although at another level of analysis, some findings made by the Bicentennial Survey of the Catholic University of Chile can also be added to this list of pieces that seem to be articulated. One of them is that 59% of those consulted think that the country will achieve development within a 10-year horizon (the highest level within the published series), and that 40% believe that the elimination of poverty is an achievable goal also within a decade. Without ignoring the fact that this study also turns on some yellow lights in other areas (such as a feeling of greater conflict, something that can be explained by the electoral moment), it is still interesting that the Bicentennial Survey also shows increases in the number of people who validate growth as the best for the country and that individual well-being is a personal responsibility rather than that of the State, something may have to do with these better expectations for the future. There are those who believe that the best expectations respond fundamentally to the probable political turn after this year’s elections, and there is surely a lot of that. However, it is fair to say that there are also other forces that are catalyzing this phenomenon, such as certain favorable external conditions (in commercial and monetary matters); a pension reform that, within its problems and complexities, promises to inject more savings and improve the depth of the capital market and the no small change represented by the approval of the sectoral permit law, which, if it meets one hundred percent of the expectations placed on it, can bring about a significant improvement in the conditions of activity, to the extent that it would come to demolish the bureaucratic dam that for years has blocked the flow of investments. Roberto Sapag He is a journalist specialized in economics and a consultant in communications, reputation and sustainability.